FXUS64 KLIX 221431 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 931 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 928 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather will be in place through the end of this week. - Threat of fog increases through Monday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 No major weather impacts in the short term other than a few foggy mornings. Dense fog probabilities should be a their highest tonight and Monday night with Monday night possibly the winner out of the two as a slowing and stalling front nears the area. We will have to look at these individually as there could be variables that does not allow dense fog to form such as cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Through Friday, a very strong upper level ridge axis extending eastward from the southern Rockies and Texas will keep very warm and very dry conditions in place. Temperatures will be a good 10 to 15 degrees above average each day as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. There is even a potential to have a few locations rise into the lower 90s by Friday if temperatures trend toward the NBM 75th percentiles on Thursday and Friday. A few record highs will likely be tied or eclipsed over this period of time. Given the dry airmass in place, a large diurnal range of around 25 degrees is anticipated. This will allow overnight lows to cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s each night. Fog potential will be lower than in the short term period as drier air mixes down to the surface each afternoon allowing dewpoints to mix out into the mid 50s. As we head into Saturday, model differences begin to arise between the GFS and the ECMWF/Canadian models. The Euro and Canadian models have consistently kept the strong ridge over the southwest and southern Plains in place through the weekend. This would continue to the warm and dry pattern expected at the start of the long term window. The GFS is the outlier solution with a much stronger longwave trough digging into the eastern half of the CONUS and breaking down the ridge. The deterministic NBM shows very slight cooling over the weekend, on the order of around 5 degrees, into the upper 70s and lower 80s, but the overall temperature spread is larger at close to 10 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles. The deterministic output is below the 25th percentile value, so it is definitely an extreme outlier from the model consensus. The forecast will stick with this outlier temperature for now, but an increase back toward the middle to upper 80s may occur as we move through early next week and model solutions come into better agreement. No rainfall is expected if the shortwave moves through as the mid to upper levels will remain exceptionally dry. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 928 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 MVFR ceilings will likely persist through much of the morning where they are in place currently. However, expecting VFR conditions to take over as warming in the lower levels aides in cloud deck 'lifting'. Similar conditions expected again tonight with patchy light to moderate fog and lower strat deck in the early morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 A broad area of high pressure centered over the eastern gulf will keep a prevailing southerly wind of around 10 knots in place through Monday. Late Tuesday, a weak front will stall near the coast but light northerly winds will spread over the coastal waters at least temporarily. By Wednesday, southerly flow of 5 to 10 knots and low end seas of 1 to 2 feet will return as high pressure over the eastern Gulf once again becomes the dominant feature. These conditions will last through the end of next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...ME MARINE...TE