FXUS64 KLIX 092335 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 635 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The base of an upper level trough location along a line from Texas to the Great Lakes is currently being pinched off by a low near OH/PA. The remnant cutoff low will generally meander across the nearby region between LA and MS over the course of the weekend. A fairly complex local weather scenario in place over the CWA this afternoon. As the upper trough axis to the north of the CWA dug southward this morning/now, PVA on the southeastern side of the pivoting trough translated to surface pressure falls induced cyclogenesis and weak frontogenesis. Those broad areal pressure falls combined with fairly deep layer moisture has resulted in nearly complete areal coverage of showers. Add in a couple MCVs into the mix and dual wind/heavy rain threats ongoing will likely last through this afternoon and well into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 As the upper trough finally wraps up into a closed low on Saturday, global and CAM models show the bulk of higher PW's shifting north. That'd put the CWA in a decent dry slot, though doubtful there won't be at least a few lingering shower in the area. Uncertainty is a bit higher for normal then as evening moreso on Sunday, trying to resolve timing and placement of waves of rain rotating around the upper low. If any storms do develop, large hail will be the main threat with such a deep upper low nearby. This system finally gets kicked out Tuesday as a broad trough enters the country from the Pacific. Should have a couple to a few dry day days before next chance of rain. From a temp perspective, be ready for summer show up REAL QUICK. Upper ridge builds in behind the upper low with possibly a 593dm ridge centered in the Gulf of America. That'll put highs well into the lower 90s...a pretty substantial increase from where we are today. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Showers continue over the next few hours. Outside of convection, CIGs will drop for most terminals with IFR conditions or perhaps lower at times through the overnight hours. On Saturday, conditions will gradually improve. Cannot rule out a shower or two Saturday, however, lack confidence in terms of timing and location(s). (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A cutoff upper level low centered near northern LA through this weekend will lead to widely varying wind directions across local coastal waters. As multiple surface lows develop and rotate around the upper low, wind directions will change. Then, add in mesoscale changes from daily thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. So, needless to day wind directions will be quite variable until early next week when cutoff low finally pushes to the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 71 57 76 / 70 70 20 40 BTR 62 75 58 76 / 60 50 10 40 ASD 62 77 57 79 / 80 40 10 40 MSY 66 77 61 78 / 80 40 10 40 GPT 63 77 60 78 / 90 40 10 40 PQL 62 79 59 81 / 90 40 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...RDF MARINE...ME