FXUS64 KLIX 092042 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The base of an upper level trough location along a line from Texas to the Great Lakes is currently being pinched off by a low near OH/PA. The remnant cutoff low will generally meander across the nearby region between LA and MS over the course of the weekend. A fairly complex local weather scenario in place over the CWA this afternoon. As the upper trough axis to the north of the CWA dug southward this morning/now, PVA on the southeastern side of the pivoting trough translated to surface pressure falls induced cyclogenesis and weak frontogenesis. Those broad areal pressure falls combined with fairly deep layer moisture has resulted in nearly complete areal coverage of showers. Add in a couple MCVs into the mix and dual wind/heavy rain threats ongoing will likely last through this afternoon and well into the evening hours. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 As the upper trough finally wraps up into a closed low on Saturday, global and CAM models show the bulk of higher PW's shifting north. That'd put the CWA in a decent dry slot, though doubtful there won't be at least a few lingering shower in the area. Uncertainty is a bit higher for normal then as evening moreso on Sunday, trying to resolve timing and placement of waves of rain rotating around the upper low. If any storms do develop, large hail will be the main threat with such a deep upper low nearby. This system finally gets kicked out Tuesday as a broad trough enters the country from the Pacific. Should have a couple to a few dry day days before next chance of rain. From a temp perspective, be ready for summer show up REAL QUICK. Upper ridge builds in behind the upper low with possibly a 593dm ridge centered in the Gulf of America. That'll put highs well into the lower 90s...a pretty substantial increase from where we are today. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions exist across the local area with varying cloud deck heights and visibilities. The main driver of those restrictions is the wide swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms tracking across the region. Although most of the thunderstorms are along coastal areas, expecting some of that convection to spread farther north this afternoon. Occasional heavy rain and lightning will be the main impacts form stronger storms. Probably wont' see much appreciable decrease in convective coverage until after 06Z. However, saturated low levels will bring down cloud decks this evening through the overnight period. Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings well into the Saturday morning timeframe. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A cutoff upper level low centered near northern LA through this weekend will lead to widely varying wind directions across local coastal waters. As multiple surface lows develop and rotate around the upper low, wind directions will change. Then, add in mesoscale changes from daily thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. So, needless to day wind directions will be quite variable until early next week when cutoff low finally pushes to the east. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 71 57 76 / 70 70 20 40 BTR 62 75 58 76 / 60 50 10 40 ASD 62 77 57 79 / 80 40 10 40 MSY 66 77 61 78 / 80 40 10 40 GPT 63 77 60 78 / 90 40 10 40 PQL 62 79 59 81 / 90 40 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME