FXUS64 KLIX 090433 AAB AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1133 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 A stalled frontal boundary is currently draped along the coastal waters just south of the Louisiana coastline. Radar has showed steady convective development throughout the day and likely to continue through daytime heating period. Inland SELA and southern MS are experiencing much more pleasant weather compared to 24 hrs ago thanks to weak surface ridging on the north side of the boundary. The quiet period over the CWA today will be fairly short lived as high rain chances return Friday morning. Non-typical west-to-east orientation of upper trough axis just north of the CWA looks to dig south toward the Gulf of America on Friday. PVA on the southeastern side of the pivoting trough translates to pressure falls at the surface and some form of frontogenesis in the northeastern Gulf. The CAMs all appear to pic up on this and indicate a wide swath of QPF to pass across the CWA Friday. Better instability should remain offshore and aid in the development of an MCS. However, scattered thunderstorms embedded within rain shield could bring marginally severe potential across the local area. Model soundings indicate modestly steep lapse rates and sufficiently cool mid/upper levels to support hail. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 This weekend into the start of next week is looking like a daily repeat of decent rain chances and slightly below normal temps. The base of the trough just to the north will become a cutoff low as it gets pinched off by an upper low moving trough the Ohio River Valley. Decreasing 500mb heights will keep temps below normal for a change with highs in the upper 70s. Cloud cover and higher rain chances play some part into that. In terms of POPs, pretty much 50% each day Sat-Mon with low confidence on timing and location as model's abilities to resolve such features this far out in this situation are low. However, pattern recognition points towards large hail potential. Upper level lows right on top of the CWA early summer would be considered a great analog for unusually large hail. This system finally gets kicked out Tuesday as a broad trough enters the country from the Pacific. Should have a couple to a few dry day days before next chance of rain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Mostly VFR conditions through the early morning. A complex of convection is expected to develop later this morning and generally lift northward into the afternoon. Expect both VIS/CIG reductions through much of the day on Friday for most terminals in the heaviest storms with IFR conditions possible from time to time. Winds will also be variable through the cycle, but mostly light outside of convection. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 A frontal boundary across the northern Gulf Coast will result in widely varying winds in the marine forecast. This is due to locations north of the boundary seeing northerly winds and those south of the boundary experiencing southerly winds. Then, as the front slides north and south over time, so does the wind field. Its not until later next week when cutoff low centered north the coastal waters is finally pushed to the east that the wind field becomes more uniform across all local marine areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 84 64 81 61 / 10 10 60 40 BTR 85 67 81 63 / 10 30 70 40 ASD 83 66 80 62 / 20 30 70 50 MSY 82 69 78 67 / 30 40 80 50 GPT 81 67 79 64 / 30 20 70 60PQL 81 65 81 62 / 30 20 70 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...RDF MARINE...ME