FXUS64 KLIX 031556

AFDLIX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New Orleans LA

956 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 946 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



- Cold front will move through early Wednesday with showers and

  perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms overnight Tuesday through

  midday Wednesday. 



- Moderate to strong winds ahead of the front will lead to breezy

  conditions across the area this afternoon with strong winds

  developing over the coastal waters tonight. After the cold front

  moves through strong northwest winds will develop over both land

  and marine areas. SCY headlines are out for all open waters and

  sounds beginning Tuesday night through Thursday and the tidal

  lakes Wednesday morning through Thursday. 



- Following the cold front, there will be potential for freezing

  temperatures again Thursday and Friday morning, mainly

  along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Strong winds in the wake of

  the cold front will also lead to hazardous conditions across the

  coastal waters.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This afternoon through Wednesday)

Issued at 946 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Tonight through Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move

through the region, enhancing rain chances for the area. The main

timing of this enhanced rainfall will be late evening (after ~10pm

through the overnight hours). These scattered showers and storms

will be strong, with main threats being lightning and gusty

subsevere winds (40-55mph), but we are not expecting severe

weather with this system. Generally, rainfall totals are less than

an inch, so not expecting widespread flooding concerns either.

Some localized ponding and flooding could be possible in urban

areas as the system moves through, but it is generally expected to

be quite progressive. MSW



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday night through Monday)

Issued at 946 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



On the backside of the cold front, temperatures will drop again,

though not as severely or as long-lasting as the previous systems.

The lows on Thursday morning are near or below freezing for areas

along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Remember to protect

plants, pets, and people on Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday 

warm up to the mid 50s. Lows on Friday are above freezing for all 

locations across the area. The area with the best chance of seeing

freezing temperatures on Friday morning will be mainly Jackson 

County, MS, especially near the Pascagoula River drainage basin. 



Once we get through Friday morning, temperatures warm quite 

rapidly. Highs on Friday through the weekend will be in the upper 

60s and low 70s. Lows for the weekend will be in the mid 40s. So, 

it should be a really nice weekend with dry and mild weather for 

any outdoor activities or parades. MSW



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 946 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. A cold front moving

through the area will cause IFR conditions at all area airports

late this evening through tomorrow morning due to low ceilings,

visibilities, and rain. These conditions will likely last through

the end of the forecast period. Wind shifts greater than 30

degrees will be expected throughout the forecast period. MSW



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 946 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



As low pressure slides across the southern Plains, Ozarks, and into 

the TN Valley by this afternoon/evening and high pressure becomes 

centered over FL a more persistent southerly wind will develop with 

moderate to strong southwesterly winds by evening. We will likely 

see frequent gusts over 20kt across the open waters and sounds by 

mid evening. The cold front will then slide across the area 

Wednesday bringing gusty winds back out of the northwest. A Small 

Craft Advisory has already been issued beginning for the previously 

mentioned waters starting Tuesday evening through Thursday while the 

tidal lakes go under the advisory after the front moves through late 

Wednesday morning.



&&



.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday 

     for GMZ530-534.



     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday 

     for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.



MS...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday 

     for GMZ534.



     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday 

     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MSW

LONG TERM....MSW

AVIATION...MSW

MARINE...MSW