FXUS64 KLIX 030426 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A drier airmass indicated by PW of 1.7 tol 1.9 inches will be the direct result of an upper level ridge becoming more centered over the central Gulf coast. As sinking air aloft warms and dries, it will allow for the development of a mid-level temperature inversion around the 700mb or 10k feet level. This capping inversion will effectively limit updraft development, and this will lead to less overall shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the forecast area each day. At most, an isolated shower or weak thunderstorm could try to fire up along the seabreeze boundary where low level convergence is maximized. With this in mind, there are 20 to 30 percent PoP values in place for coastal Louisiana both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Less cloud cover and the drier air mixing down to the surface each day will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. However, the drier air and lower humidity values will keep extreme heat at bay with heat index values of 100 to 105 expected on Thursday and Friday. These values are not uncommon for early July. [PG/DSS] && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Saturday will continue to see the influence of the weak ridging aloft with continued below average PWATS, slightly warmer temperatures, and isolated to widely scattered convective activity confined to the coast where seabreeze boundary interactions will provide just enough low level forcing to produce some deeper updrafts. Overall, very similar conditions to those seen on Friday are expected for Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday will see a more typical Summer pattern take hold. The upper level ridge will weaken and push away from the region, and an inverted trough moving with the prevailing easterly flow in the upper levels will slide in from the eastern Gulf. As this inverted trough axis moves in, PWATS will rise back to more average levels near 1.75 inches for the start of the new workweek. The trough will also provide some additional forcing in the upper levels and cooler temperatures associated with the low will allow the mid-level capping inversion to weaken dramatically. The end result will be an increase in instability with MLCAPE values climbing back to around 1500 J/KG and greater convective coverage each day. PoP values of 50 to 70 percent each afternoon reflect this increased risk for early next week. Temperatures will also cool slightly into the lower 90s, but the increase in low level humidity will keep heat index values around 105 degrees each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Afternoon convection has ended leaving VFR conditions across the area. This situation will prevail through the period, with the exceptions of HUM/MSY/BTR where convection will bring chances of SHRA beginning around 17Z and accounted for with PROB30 coding. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Typical summertime conditions associated with high pressure over the area. Winds will be from the north around 10 kt with 1 to 2 ft seas through Saturday and switching to southerly, less than 10 kt, with resultant 1 ft seas. Convection through the early weekend is less likely, but increases later into the weekend and into the new week. Winds in the vicinity of the convection will be stronger and variable and can cause localized heavier seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 72 93 72 / 20 10 30 10 BTR 94 77 94 75 / 30 10 40 20 ASD 93 73 94 73 / 40 10 30 10 MSY 92 80 94 80 / 40 10 40 10 GPT 91 74 94 75 / 30 10 20 10 PQL 91 71 94 71 / 40 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS