FXUS64 KLCH 100426 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1126 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface wave and upper level disturbance will bring pockets of heavy rainfall with a flood potential over Acadiana through the remainder of the afternoon. - An upper level low will linger in the region over the weekend into Monday with scattered showers and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. - Runoff from the recent rainfall will continue to produce elevated hydro flows with numerous river points expected to remain in flood through the weekend. - High pressure building in early next week will lead to drying conditions and a warming trend through end of next work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Isolated shower activity continues to rotate across the CWA tonight beneath an upper level low pressure system overhead. Most of this activity is expected to die off over the next couple of hours as we near midnight however, a few very isolated showers may continue thereafter, particularly across CENLA. Main update this evening was to tweak overnight POPs to align with this thinking. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with partly cloudy skies, light N to NE winds and temps falling into the low to mid 60s expected tonight. 17 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A rather complex weather situation this afternoon. Overall a weakness remains aloft with an upper level low in the region with a glob of highly anomalous Gulf moisture over Acadiana. Meanwhile, a surface wave over south central Louisiana moving along an old frontal boundary/coastal trough is helping to produce numerous showers with pockets of heavy rainfall. The surface wave is expected to continue to gradually push east over the next few hours pushing the heavy rain threat off to the east. Meanwhile, areas that were not worked over from today's convection, will see scattered showers from diurnal heating develop. These showers will decrease with the loss of daytime heating. The weakness and cut off low aloft will linger through the weekend. A surface low developing along the coast is expected to move toward the central Gulf coast and keep the highly anomalous moisture to the east of the forecast area. Therefore, expect mainly scattered showers each day during the weekend due to the weakness aloft and daytime heating. At this time, the heavier rain should be east of the forecast area, and parameters do not favor any strong convection. What we will see also over Mother's Day Weekend, is with the cloud cover and mainly a northerly flow, temperatures will be some 5 to 10 degrees below climo norms. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The upper level weakness will begin to elongate over the region on Monday before pushing off to the north and east as an upper level ridge builds in from the south. With the weakness hanging around on Monday, there still could be a low chance for showers. However, when the ridge builds in, drying conditions can be expected ending rain chances for the remainder of the period. Also, southerly winds will resume over the forecast area providing for a warming trend with temperatures becoming near or slightly above climo norms. Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Convection has ended across the region with only a few isolated showers near LFT and ARA. Overnight ceilings will be MVFR with periods of VFR possible. After sunrise the cloud deck will start to rise. Afternoon convection will be possible with PROB30 during tomorrow afternoon for popup showers. &&.MARINE... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A coastal low is expected to move across the northwest Gulf through Saturday allowing for a modest offshore flow. The surface low will linger over the region keeping a light to occasionally modest northerly flow in place through the weekend. Early next week, the surface low will wash out with high pressure at the surface ridging in from the east. This will allow a light to modest southerly flow to develop. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 61 74 55 / 50 40 50 20 LCH 79 62 77 58 / 70 20 50 20 LFT 76 62 76 57 / 80 30 40 10 BPT 82 61 80 58 / 50 20 50 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...14