FXUS64 KLCH 092321 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 621 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface wave and upper level disturbance will bring pockets of heavy rainfall with a flood potential over Acadiana through the remainder of the afternoon. - An upper level low will linger in the region over the weekend into Monday with scattered showers and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. - Runoff from the recent rainfall will continue to produce elevated hydro flows with numerous river points expected to remain in flood through the weekend. - High pressure building in early next week will lead to drying conditions and a warming trend through end of next work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A rather complex weather situation this afternoon. Overall a weakness remains aloft with an upper level low in the region with a glob of highly anomalous Gulf moisture over Acadiana. Meanwhile, a surface wave over south central Louisiana moving along an old frontal boundary/coastal trough is helping to produce numerous showers with pockets of heavy rainfall. The surface wave is expected to continue to gradually push east over the next few hours pushing the heavy rain threat off to the east. Meanwhile, areas that were not worked over from today's convection, will see scattered showers from diurnal heating develop. These showers will decrease with the loss of daytime heating. The weakness and cut off low aloft will linger through the weekend. A surface low developing along the coast is expected to move toward the central Gulf coast and keep the highly anomalous moisture to the east of the forecast area. Therefore, expect mainly scattered showers each day during the weekend due to the weakness aloft and daytime heating. At this time, the heavier rain should be east of the forecast area, and parameters do not favor any strong convection. What we will see also over Mother's Day Weekend, is with the cloud cover and mainly a northerly flow, temperatures will be some 5 to 10 degrees below climo norms. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The upper level weakness will begin to elongate over the region on Monday before pushing off to the north and east as an upper level ridge builds in from the south. With the weakness hanging around on Monday, there still could be a low chance for showers. However, when the ridge builds in, drying conditions can be expected ending rain chances for the remainder of the period. Also, southerly winds will resume over the forecast area providing for a warming trend with temperatures becoming near or slightly above climo norms. Rua && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Both a surface low and a stationary boundary sits along the coast combined with an upper level low produced widespread convection across the region. The upper level feature is starting to move east and will drag the convection with it. An additional round of showers will be possible for BPT/LCH/AEX but looks to be unlikely at this time. Prevailing MVFR conditions will continue through the night due to low ceilings. Winds will be light and from the north through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A coastal low is expected to move across the northwest Gulf through Saturday allowing for a modest offshore flow. The surface low will linger over the region keeping a light to occasionally modest northerly flow in place through the weekend. Early next week, the surface low will wash out with high pressure at the surface ridging in from the east. This will allow a light to modest southerly flow to develop. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 61 74 55 70 / 40 50 20 40 LCH 62 77 58 71 / 20 50 20 30 LFT 62 76 57 75 / 30 40 10 40 BPT 62 80 58 73 / 20 50 20 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...14