FXUS64 KLCH 091438

AFDLCH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

938 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New UPDATE...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Moderate flooding will continue the next few days on the

  Calcasieu Basin. Elsewhere minor flooding is occurring or

  forecast.



- Isolated to scattered rainfall will persist through Monday.

  Temperatures 5-10° below climatological norms also until Monday.

 

- High pressure next Tuesday will lead to drying conditions and a

  warming trend through end of the upcoming work week. 



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 935 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



An upper level disturbance will combine with a very moist air mass

to produce numerous showers through the afternoon hours. A few

thunderstorms may mix in near the coast and offshore where

instability and shear is better. Main concern will be the rain

falling over wet grounds with high hydro flows so this will be

watched closely and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) is outlined

for the eastern portion of the forecast area. The stronger storms

with some rotation will occur over the coastal waters and will be

watching closely to see if these storms can reach the coast before

weakening. 



Made some adjustments to the pop and weather grids based on latest

radar trends. 



Rua



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today through Sunday night)

Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Isolated showers and storms present on radar this morning with

most of the coverage across SETX and in LA along the I-10 to the

Gulf. This activity will be on and off through the day with

light coverage expanding across parts of CenLA. All of our LA 

Parishes are in a Marginal Risk ERO and SWO today. Showers and

storms are expected to ramp up over the late morning to afternoon

hours. While instability leaves a lot to be desired, it will be

enough to get a few storms going. Presently, strong wind gusts 

and hail are the primary concerns. 



A coastal trough has begun to take shape off the TX/MX shore and

it will continue to develop as it moves across the Gulf before

reaching the MS/AL coastline. This low will meander and do a dance

about the central Gulf coast region before broadening by the end

of the short term. Aloft, an upper low will cutoff over the 

Central Plains before dropping south and centering directly

overhead later today, where it will remain parked for the duration

of the short term. 



Temperatures will be below climatological normals thanks to the

cloud cover and rain. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Going into the new work week, a new pattern will emerge as the

surface low weakens as it drifts off and an upper low slowly 

lifting of to the NNE. A broad surface high will move into the 

gulf with a southerly to SErly flow returning and prevailing for 

the duration of the long term. Aloft, the upper cutoff low will be

directly overhead at the beginning of the long term before 

lifting out of the area, with ridging setting up over the region.



Conditions are expected to be dry in terms of rain however 

anything but dry in terms of RH as southerly flow brings in low

level moisture. Along with rising Td, actual temps will also be on

the rise. Fortunately it will only be about 3 to 7° above

climatological normals.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Generally VFR conditions to prevail over most of the forecast 

period with worsening conditions for terminals receiving direct

impacts from heavier showers or storms. Currently showers are

light, however heavier showers and thunderstorm activity can be

expected going into the late morning to evening hours. After the

activity wanes, some lower CIGs will be likely near the end of

this TAF cycle.  



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the gulf 

marine zones, with this expected to continue on and off through 

the rest of the day. A coastal trough will begin to develop 

through the weekend below the 60NM offshore waters and lift toward

the Mississippi Delta late Sunday. While the more active and 

persisting clustered storms are forecast to remain over the 

central Gulf, a few rounds of convection are forecast to occur 

within the nearshore waters overnight through Saturday night. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AEX  79  61  73  56 /  50  40  40  30 

LCH  79  63  77  58 /  70  30  50  20 

LFT  76  63  75  58 /  80  40  60  20 

BPT  82  63  79  58 /  50  20  50  20 



&&



.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...87

LONG TERM....87

AVIATION...87