FXUS64 KLCH 091142 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 642 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate flooding will continue the next few days on the Calcasieu Basin. Elsewhere minor flooding is occurring or forecast. - Isolated to scattered rainfall will persist through Monday. Temperatures 5-10° below climatological norms also until Monday. - High pressure next Tuesday will lead to drying conditions and a warming trend through end of the upcoming work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Isolated showers and storms present on radar this morning with most of the coverage across SETX and in LA along the I-10 to the Gulf. This activity will be on and off through the day with light coverage expanding across parts of CenLA. All of our LA Parishes are in a Marginal Risk ERO and SWO today. Showers and storms are expected to ramp up over the late morning to afternoon hours. While instability leaves a lot to be desired, it will be enough to get a few storms going. Presently, strong wind gusts and hail are the primary concerns. A coastal trough has begun to take shape off the TX/MX shore and it will continue to develop as it moves across the Gulf before reaching the MS/AL coastline. This low will meander and do a dance about the central Gulf coast region before broadening by the end of the short term. Aloft, an upper low will cutoff over the Central Plains before dropping south and centering directly overhead later today, where it will remain parked for the duration of the short term. Temperatures will be below climatological normals thanks to the cloud cover and rain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Going into the new work week, a new pattern will emerge as the surface low weakens as it drifts off and an upper low slowly lifting of to the NNE. A broad surface high will move into the gulf with a southerly to SErly flow returning and prevailing for the duration of the long term. Aloft, the upper cutoff low will be directly overhead at the beginning of the long term before lifting out of the area, with ridging setting up over the region. Conditions are expected to be dry in terms of rain however anything but dry in terms of RH as southerly flow brings in low level moisture. Along with rising Td, actual temps will also be on the rise. Fortunately it will only be about 3 to 7° above climatological normals. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Generally VFR conditions to prevail over most of the forecast period with worsening conditions for terminals receiving direct impacts from heavier showers or storms. Currently showers are light, however heavier showers and thunderstorm activity can be expected going into the late morning to evening hours. After the activity wanes, some lower CIGs will be likely near the end of this TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the gulf marine zones, with this expected to continue on and off through the rest of the day. A coastal trough will begin to develop through the weekend below the 60NM offshore waters and lift toward the Mississippi Delta late Sunday. While the more active and persisting clustered storms are forecast to remain over the central Gulf, a few rounds of convection are forecast to occur within the nearshore waters overnight through Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 61 73 56 / 40 40 40 30 LCH 79 63 77 58 / 40 30 50 20 LFT 76 63 75 58 / 60 40 60 20 BPT 82 63 79 58 / 30 20 50 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87