FXUS64 KLCH 061717 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1217 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather today due to a cold front. - Heavy rain and flash flooding is possible today and Thursday as a front moves across the region. - Rain chances remain in place during the weekend with upper disturbances traversing the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A shortwave is moving across eastern Texas this afternoon with strong southwest flow extending across the region. At the surface, a frontal boundary is approaching northern Louisiana, with increasing moisture and some daytime heating leading to rather buoyant conditions ahead of it. Thus, a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) to Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather continues for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Some showers are ongoing across the western portion of the forecast area and this region should continue to be the focus for most of the convection expected during the rest of the day. The main threats with this setup continue to be larger hail and strong wind gusts, especially for the northern part of the forecast area. Additionally, heavy rainfall remains a possibility with some of these storms as abundant tropical moisture will lead to a moderate to slight risk for excessive rainfall across portions of the region. The front will slowly push southward and then stall Thursday before slowly lifting back northward on Friday. WAA will return moisture back north while multiple upper disturbances traverse the area through Sunday. Rain chances will remain elevated into the weekend before another front pushes offshore and sharper short wave sweeps through. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A mixture of MVFR/IFR conditions continues this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms across the region later this afternoon and evening. Best chances continue for KAEX, with more scattered activity expected elsewhere. Lower cigs/vsbys continue overnight and into Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A moderate onshore flow is expected today ahead of a cold front. This front will move through today and then stall over the waters on Thursday before lifting back north into the weekend. Another cold front will push back offshore late Sunday with a moderate north flow anticipated Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A cold front will move into the region today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and evening. This front will stall tonight into Thursday and then be the focus for additional rain into the weekend. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ Sent by TBW