FXUS64 KLCH 031757 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1257 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Maximum heat indices top out in the 100 to 105F range. Heat advisories may be needed over the Holiday weekend. - The upper ridge will begin to break down. Low end afternoon thunderstorm chances will return to CenLA and the Atchafalaya Basin. - No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 As of this afternoon, partly to mostly cloudy and hazy skies persist across the region, with temperatures generally in the upper 80s. This cloud cover is helping to slightly mitigate surface heating, with daytime highs expected to peak in the lower to mid 90s. A few isolated, diurnally driven showers will be possible today, particularly along the sea breeze and in association with a weak disturbance moving eastward across Texas. Heading into Friday and the early portion of the weekend, the upper ridge will continue to gradually weaken. Combined with the persistently moist airmass in place, this will support a slightly noticeable uptick in convection, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will remain fairly steady through the short term period. Increased cloud cover may limit some locations to the upper 80s, but most areas will still top out in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will offer little relief, remaining in the mid 70s. While forecast temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain below Heat Advisory thresholds, the prolonged heat and humidity combined with outdoor events associated with the holiday weekend warrant continued caution for heat sensitive groups. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A broad weakness in the upper levels will persist over the region into the extended period, supporting continued daily chances for scattered, mainly diurnal convection. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal averages, generally in the low to mid 90s. By the latter half of the forecast period, guidance continues to suggest the reestablishment of an upper ridge, which may result in a gradual warming trend and a reduction in convective coverage. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. Expect SCT to BKN high clouds streaming overhead, with limited coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Any convection will diminish after sunset, yielding a quiet overnight period. Patchy fog may develop late tonight across portions of SETX and CenLA, though impacts are expected to be minimal. A similar pattern is anticipated tomorrow, with slightly increased convective potential as the upper ridge weakens. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 High pressure area situated over the northern Gulf, while weak and meandering at times, will result in light, variable winds and low seas through the start of next week. Upper level weakness then moves overhead in line with expansive surface high situated over the eastern seaboard. This will bring about consistent onshore flow beginning in the early to mid next work week. Daily scattered showers to return to the forecast this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Scattered diurnal rain chances will return to the forecast this weekend as ridging breaks down. Afternoon temperatures will remain near to slightly above climatological normals, with minimum relative humidity values generally ranging from 40 to 60 percent. No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 92 73 96 / 20 30 10 20 LCH 77 90 75 94 / 10 30 10 30 LFT 77 90 75 93 / 20 40 10 40 BPT 75 91 75 94 / 10 20 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87