FXUS64 KLCH 021759 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1259 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat advisories may be needed over the holiday weekend. - An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid conditions. - No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Locally, broad subsidence has resulted in stable mid level tropospheric conditions noting weak subsidence inversions near 800mb along with a considerable dewpoint depression. That said, dewpoints have trended a few degrees higher this afternoon which supports isolated chances over Central and East LA. This diurnally driven convective showers and storms will wain quickly during the evening hours with little synoptic forcing available. Prognosis over the next few days is for an upper level ridge to further build north from Mexico to the Central Plains. This ridge will amplify through the end of the work week and serve to keep the active subtropical jet meandering north of our region. Temperatures will climb to the low - mid 90's daily; factoring in the RH and heat indices climb toward the 105° mark. Even though we remain below heat advisory criteria, it is strongly encouraged to check on people, plants and animals that may be sensitive to hot conditions when exposed for long periods of time. Therefore, little considering a blended model approach PoPs stay isolated with best chances generally lying over Acadiana. An orphaned frontal boundary will stall across Central LA, and guidance does not suggest strong gradients that would help enhance rain chances. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Over the weekend, the upper ridge will still be in place over the region, keeping warm temps and low rain chances in the forecast. Despite this, we could still see some isolated diurnal convection during the late morning to early evening hours. Going into the next work week, there will be a pattern change as an upper trough takes shape over an area expanding from the Gulf, across the FL peninsula, then into the Atlantic Coast. While NHC gives this area a 40 percent chance of tropical or subtropical development, we will not receive any direct impacts from whatever forms. Above average temperature conditions to continue in the extended period, with both max and min temps ranging around 2 to 5 degrees above climo norms. With afternoon air temps in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, we will see apparent temps reaching into the 100 to 110 range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to remain across all terminals in the forecast area. Pockets of SCT to BKN cumulus have been observed in the 3-5kft AGL heights, however, convection has trended along north central and east LA on an isolated extend. This may enter the vicinity of AEX, LFT, and ARA over the next several hours before diurnal components wain. Winds to remain light to gentle W'lys through the early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow will continue, along with low seas between 1 and 3 feet. The NHC has marked an invest area in the eastern Gulf with a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. Regardless of development occurs into the western Atlantic impacts are not expected near SETX / SWLA. We will continue to monitor the disturbance and update the forecast as needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Low rain chances and hightemperatures will persist over the next several days. Minimum RH values will remain elevated around 50%, with overnight values peaking 90 - 100%. Winds will stay light and primarily southerly through the holiday weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 95 74 93 / 10 20 10 10 LCH 77 93 77 93 / 10 10 10 20 LFT 77 93 76 93 / 10 30 10 30 BPT 75 93 76 93 / 0 10 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30