FXUS64 KLCH 021121 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat advisories may be needed over the holiday weekend. - An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid conditions. - No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Upper-level ridging continues to impact our area, with high pressure centered over the western U.S. At the surface, ridging extends across the northern Gulf and continues to push warm, moist air into the region. Convection will remain isolated and limited to the afternoon hours, as the ridge influences our weather pattern. This afternoon’s 00Z sounding shows a PWAT value of 1.5 inches, placing us in the 25th percentile. This is much lower than the GFS model guidance, which expected 1.8 inches. The much drier air will reduce rain chances further, and PoPs will remain low for the rest of the week. This pattern will continue through most of the week, with 500 mb heights staying above 590 dm. The main weather concern will be the heat. This afternoon, almost all of our stations reported heat index values in the triple digits, though we didn’t reach the heat advisory threshold of 105°F. Through the rest of the week and heading into Independence Day, temperatures will continue to rise, with highs well into the 90s and heat indices breaking into the triple digits. We are expecting borderline heat advisory conditions, and it’s possible a heat advisory may be needed for parts of the CWA by Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Heat will remain the main concern in the second half of the forecast period, as the upper-level ridge persists. Temperatures will approach the triple digits for the first time this year, and we may reach 100°F in central Louisiana, over the weekend. NBM probabilities give Alexandria a 50% chance to reach the triple digits. For the rest of the CWA chances remain on the low side, around 30%. Rain chances will remain low, with PoPs hovering around 20% until next week. As the ridge shifts to the west subsidence will lessen and more afternoon convection will occur along with a slight decrease in temperatures. Overall the start of next week looks like a typical summer time pattern. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. A couple of isolated thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of LFT or ARA this afternoon, but remaining terminals should remain dry. Light westerly to west southwesterly winds will prevail through the day becoming variable overnight. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow will continue, along with low seas between 1 and 3 feet. The NHC has marked an invest area in the eastern Gulf with a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. It's too early to determine whether there will be any regional impacts, but we will continue to monitor the system and update the forecast as needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Low rain chances and high temperatures will persist over the next several days. Minimum RH values will remain elevated around 50%, with overnight values peaking near 100%. Winds will stay light and primarily southerly through the holiday weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 75 95 73 / 10 10 10 10 LCH 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 10 LFT 92 77 93 76 / 30 20 30 10 BPT 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...66