FXUS64 KJAN 271927 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 227 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will move through the region Tuesday night and bring the next best chance for rain. - Strong gusty winds are expected Wednesday in the wake of the cold front. - Colder and drier conditions are expected late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Through Tuesday night: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Although the measurable precipitation has ended over our northeast zones, there will remain a few sprinkles around until this evening. The cloud cover associated with the closed low will linger into Tuesday morning as the closed low moves slowly east and opens up over the Tennessee valley. About the time the clouds try to thin out from the departing low Tuesday morning, another closed low dropping out of the northern Plains will help increase cloud cover and increase rain chances from the northwest. Rain chances will increase southeast to the Natchez Trace by Tuesday evening. Widespread rain is expected Tuesday night along and ahead of a strong cold front that the closed low will be supporting. Overall, the parameters for severe weather in our CWA don't look impressive a strong storms or two over our southwest is possible during the early evening hours. Rainfall totals on average should range from three quarters of an inch in the north to less than a quarter inch across the south. Therefore, no runoff issues are anticipated with this system. Temperatures across the north Tuesday will be held below normal while above normal afternoon highs are expected across the south. With the cold front expected to be southeast of our CWA before sunrise Wednesday, morning lows will be back below normal; in the 40s and with a breezy west wind making it feel really chilly. /22/ Wednesday through Sunday night: The big story as we go later into the week will be the onset of a much cooler weather pattern that is more typical of the fall season. For Wednesday into Wednesday night, a strong cold advection pattern in the wake of the departing cold front will make for raw conditions. Gusty west to northwest wind in the 20 to 35 mph range could cause problems for compromised trees and high profile vehicles, and have therefore begun to message for a limited wind threat, mainly over western/southern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, temperatures will be noteworthy as they struggle to rise through the 50s due to the cold advection and considerable stratocumulus and light shower activity. It wouldn't be surprising if a few locations fail to climb above 50...a pretty remarkable feat for what has been an anomalously warm fall season to this point. The wind will not relax a whole lot Wednesday night, and with continued cloud cover, temperatures will not fall much. For Thursday and beyond, Thursday could prove to be another chilly day, especially over eastern portions of the area where stratus is more likely to linger more, but the wind will not be as strong with the low departing quickly and the pressure gradient relaxing. Otherwise, the longer range portion of the forecast looks like it will be mostly influenced by dry northwest flow resulting in dry and seasonably cool conditions. We'll be monitoring the overnight lows for the potential of frost in the normally cooler spots of northeast to east central MS. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 IFR/MVFR cigs wl continue to prevail this aftn across the northern TAF sites. MVFR/VFR cigs wl prevail cntrl and south until after 00Z. After 00Z MVFR cigs are expected to prevail until cntrl and south after 09Z when cigs could lower to IFR and vsbys lower to LIFR. In the north IFR/MVFR cigs wl continue until the end of the TAF period where conditions wl begin improving. VFR conditions wl be psbl cntrl and south just before the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 55 75 48 59 / 0 20 90 40 Meridian 53 71 48 60 / 0 10 90 40 Vicksburg 55 75 49 59 / 0 50 80 30 Hattiesburg 56 78 52 65 / 0 0 90 10 Natchez 55 80 49 61 / 0 30 80 10 Greenville 55 68 48 56 / 0 70 80 60 Greenwood 55 71 47 56 / 10 60 90 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/EC/22