FXUS64 KJAN 270526 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1226 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog development is likely areawide by morning. - Low rain chances will continue through tonight as a low pressure system shifts east across the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Through Monday night: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large closed low centered over northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Drier air wrapping around the closed low has helped shift the heaviest rainfall east of Mississippi but there will remain low chances of light rain through tonight over the northeast half of the CWA and over our northeast zones Monday as the closed low shifts slowly to the east across the region. Dry weather is expected by Monday evening. Considering the widespread amount of rain that fell across the CWA, models are showing decent probabilities of dense fog development across our whole CWA with the highest probabilities across our south. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed by morning if the dense fog becomes more widespread than currently anticipated. Temperatures will be cooler tonight than last night but still a few degrees warmer than normal. The closed low and associated cloud cover will hold temperatures cooler than normal across our north Monday while our south heats back up above normal. With dry weather and less cloud cover Monday night, minimum temperatures will bottom out close normal by Tuesday morning. /22/ Tuesday-Friday: Another chance for rainfall will occur Tuesday through Wednesday as a potent cold front moves towards the region. Showers with an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Best rain chances (50-85% areawide will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. By Wednesday morning, rain chances will decrease to range between 15-45% throughout the day. The frontal boundary will push through Wednesday night, pushing remnants of the previous frontal boundary and lingering rainfall out of the region. Post boundary passage, ridging pattern will set up and establish northwest flow. As a result, drier air and temperatures 10-15 degrees below average. Highs are expected to range the mid/upper 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south. Low temperatures may bring an opportunity for the first frost of the season as lows drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s for early Friday and Saturday mornings. Take precaution ahead of the potential frost to ensure sensitive vegetation is protected. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Thanks to a mix of mainly low stratus and fog, MVFR to LIFR flight categories will be the norm overnight at area TAF sites as some light showers continue to slowly exit east into Alabama. While the fog will begin eroding after sunrise, low stratus will linger across the area throughout most of the day. This'll result in a mix of VFR and MVFR categories across the area this afternoon. Winds will be calm to light overnight, but will become more northwesterly through the day while sustained between 5-8 knots. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 55 74 48 / 10 10 20 80 Meridian 72 53 70 48 / 20 10 10 70 Vicksburg 72 55 76 48 / 0 0 30 70 Hattiesburg 78 55 78 52 / 0 0 0 70 Natchez 74 55 78 47 / 0 0 20 70 Greenville 67 55 70 47 / 10 0 40 70 Greenwood 69 55 72 47 / 10 10 30 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19