FXUS64 KJAN 100100 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 800 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Through Tonight: An upper-level low pressure system is in the process of cutting off from the main steering flow overhead today. Light to moderate rain south of Interstate 20 will gradually spread northward overnight, and even this afternoon some scattered showers or storms could develop on the northern periphery of the rain shield for areas north of I-20. A developing surface low with this system will pivot northward over southeast MS/southwest AL into the morning hours tomorrow. Best rain chances will be focused in southern/eastern zones late tonight as the low lifts into the area. /NF/ Saturday through next Week The long term period will be split between a wet and dry regime. The period begins with persistent rain chances through the weekend into early next week. Ample amounts of gulf moisture will serve to feed the storm system producing rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms through this weekend with potential maximizing Sunday. A marginal risk for severe weather will be possible Sunday afternoon through early evening predominantly along the eastern half of CWA with the main threats being isolated severe storms, damaging winds and hail. It is worth noting flash flooding and river rises will be possible during this time, our area has been indicated as an area of concern through Sunday in the WPC excessive rainfall outlook. By midweek the system will depart from the area leading way for ridging across the area. This will signal the return to dry and warm weather with temperatures being stark in contrast to this week. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s by Wed/Thu with the possibility for some areas to reach heat criteria as previous days rainfall will aid in high humidity values and in turn heat index values will near product criteria. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Rain chances are gradually expanding northward this evening & expected to continue through the TAF period. There may be some brief reduction in coverage in the Pine Belt, but most TAF sites will have chances around the next 24 hours. Ceiling reductions to MVFR to IFR (brief LIFR) will prevail between 10/06-10Z Saturday, with only brief increase to MVFR by Saturday aftn in some areas. Rain & BR will lead to periods of reduced vsby, down to MVFR to IFR reductions at times. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 69 59 76 / 80 70 50 50 Meridian 61 70 59 78 / 80 70 50 70 Vicksburg 62 68 58 73 / 70 60 50 50 Hattiesburg 63 76 58 81 / 90 60 20 50 Natchez 61 69 57 71 / 80 60 30 40 Greenville 62 68 59 73 / 30 50 60 60 Greenwood 61 68 60 76 / 40 70 70 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/KP/DC