FXUS64 KJAN 091821 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 121 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 932 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The overall forecast for today into tomorrow is the same, but confidence in rain event continues to increase with POPs being adjusted upwards. Temps will also lock in cooler where rain is already falling, so MaxT for today were adjusted downward slightly in a few areas mainly in the south. Daytime heating could produce some thunderstorms on the northern periphery of the rain shield this afternoon. Otherwise just a slight chance for thunder mixed in with the stratiform rain across the south through the daytime. Given the widespread cloud cover and rain to the south, the Marginal Risk for severe storms was removed from the forecast in our forecast area, though still remains in place at the Gulf Coast to our south. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Today and Tonight: Cooler and wetter through the period. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a positively tilted upper level trough axis from the Ohio valley back across the southern Plains resulting in southwest to westerly flow across our region. Several subtle shortwaves were noted within this sw-w flow that were already generating some vigorous convection over the western Gulf. These shortwaves are progged to help close off a low over our CWA by Saturday morning, including an attendant surface low near the Mississippi Gulf coast. Early morning surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary nearly along the Highway 84 Corridor. This stalled boundary is expected to drift back north of Interstate 20 by late afternoon in response to the developing closed low. This will place the southern half of our CWA back in the warm sector. Regional radars showed showers already along the Gulf coast. This activity is expected to expand north with daytime heating, the approaching shortwaves and developing closed low. This activity looks to get and early start in our south later this morning and continue spreading north through the afternoon and evening. By afternoon atmospheric parameters are expected to support the potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. This potential looks to be along and south of Interstate 20 where the highest pops and rain amounts are expected. Rain amounts through tonight east of Interstate 55 and south of Interstate 20 could see between one and two inches with lighter amounts elsewhere. The rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon highs cooler than normal and generally in the upper 70s. Temperatures tonight will bottom out near normal in the lower 60s. /22/ This weekend through next week... An omega blocking pattern persist over the next week and will be the predominant influence over our weather in the long term. We will start off cooler and wet under the eastern low of the omega block. As a result chances for rain will persist this weekend and into early next week. Upon approach of the upper ridge as the low departs, we will return to dry weather mid to late next week. This ridge will also drop the summer hammer on us with guidance consistently showing temps around 22-26C at 850. This is very anomalous and should easily yield temperatures in the low if not mid 90s. Also thinking that plenty of antecedent rainfall and moist ground will lead to humid conditions through evapotranspiration. While this does act as a cap on temperature, it should raise heat index. Not expecting to reach heat advisory criteria, but can't rule out a 105 heat index in isolated spots. By next weekend, the ridge breaks down and a frontal boundary pushes across, bringing a return of rain chances. /SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Rain south of Interstate 20 to start the TAF period, with rain chances and low stratus expanding north through the period. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to prevail by around 06Z Saturday at all sites. Rain and BR will lead to periods of reduced visibility. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 77 61 70 58 / 70 80 60 40 Meridian 79 60 70 58 / 60 80 70 50 Vicksburg 77 61 69 58 / 60 70 50 40 Hattiesburg 75 63 74 60 / 80 90 70 30 Natchez 74 60 69 58 / 80 80 50 30 Greenville 78 61 70 59 / 30 30 30 50 Greenwood 79 61 71 60 / 30 40 50 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SAS20/19