FXUS64 KJAN 090911 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 411 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Today and Tonight: Cooler and wetter through the period. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a positively tilted upper level trough axis from the Ohio valley back across the southern Plains resulting in southwest to westerly flow across our region. Several subtle shortwaves were noted within this sw-w flow that were already generating some vigorous convection over the western Gulf. These shortwaves are progged to help close off a low over our CWA by Saturday morning, including an attendant surface low near the Mississippi Gulf coast. Early morning surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary nearly along the Highway 84 Corridor. This stalled boundary is expected to drift back north of Interstate 20 by late afternoon in response to the developing closed low. This will place the southern half of our CWA back in the warm sector. Regional radars showed showers already along the Gulf coast. This activity is expected to expand north with daytime heating, the approaching shortwaves and developing closed low. This activity looks to get and early start in our south later this morning and continue spreading north through the afternoon and evening. By afternoon atmospheric parameters are expected to support the potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. This potential looks to be along and south of Interstate 20 where the highest pops and rain amounts are expected. Rain amounts through tonight east of Interstate 55 and south of Interstate 20 could see between one and two inches with lighter amounts elsewhere. The rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon highs cooler than normal and generally in the upper 70s. Temperatures tonight will bottom out near normal in the lower 60s. /22/ This weekend through next week... An omega blocking pattern persist over the next week and will be the predominant influence over our weather in the long term. We will start off cooler and wet under the eastern low of the omega block. As a result chances for rain will persist this weekend and into early next week. Upon approach of the upper ridge as the low departs, we will return to dry weather mid to late next week. This ridge will also drop the summer hammer on us with guidance consistently showing temps around 22-26C at 850. This is very anomalous and should easily yield temperatures in the low if not mid 90s. Also thinking that plenty of antecedent rainfall and moist ground will lead to humid conditions through evapotranspiration. While this does act as a cap on temperature, it should raise heat index. Not expecting to reach heat advisory criteria, but can't rule out a 105 heat index in isolated spots. By next weekend, the ridge breaks down and a frontal boundary pushes across, bringing a return of rain chances. /SAS/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions were observed at 0530Z at all TAF sites. VFR conditions wl prevail until after 09Z with the exception of the south where lower conditions may develop earlier due to a stalled front across the area. After 09Z MVFR/IFR conditions wl be psbl until after 14Z when conditions wl begin improving. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA wl develop in the south by 18Z and spread north into the cntrl portions of the area during the aftn. The TSRA wl decrease in coverage after 00Z Sat but affect the northern TAF sites by the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 80 61 70 58 / 50 50 60 40 Meridian 81 60 70 58 / 50 60 70 50 Vicksburg 79 61 69 58 / 40 30 40 40 Hattiesburg 79 63 74 60 / 80 70 70 30 Natchez 77 60 69 58 / 60 50 50 30 Greenville 78 61 70 59 / 20 20 30 50 Greenwood 80 60 71 60 / 30 20 40 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SAS20/22