FXUS64 KJAN 090616 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 116 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Rest of Tonight...Isolated convection will continue to develop and dissipate soon thereafter over the next couple of hours, as a disturbance aloft embedded in zonal flow continues to exit the region. As heating wanes and the disturbance moves out, convection will come to an end, with quiet conditions expected during the overnight hours. Some patchy ground fog will be possible toward day break Friday, with low stratus also developing. Otherwise, look for low tonight to fall into the low to middle 60s. The ongoing forecast is in good shape. Other than some minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major changes will be made on tonight's update. /19/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Through Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in northeastern portions of our forecast area where moisture is sufficient enough for some uncapped convection. Most of the area should remain clear, through the evening, but storms in those areas to the northeast could become strong to severe with decent deep-layer shear to organize updrafts. A Marginal Risk for severe storms remains in place into this evening. Residual moisture overnight could lead to some patchy fog development early Friday morning, however HREF probabilities are fairly low, and low PWAT values at present suggest only shallow moisture will be available for fog to develop in low-lying areas. Friday through Thursday: The weather pattern through the end of this week and into next week will be dominated by a closed low pressure system cutting off from buckled flow over the Gulf Coast. Returning moisture from the south tomorrow could support some additional strong to severe storms in southeast Mississippi, and a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been issued for the afternoon and evening hours to account for this potential. A resulting rex block pattern introduces some uncertainty for how quickly the cutoff low will lift northward again, but guidance in decent agreement for showing the low move into the Midwest around Tuesday in advance of a deepening trough over the U.S. West Coast. While this low spins over our Gulf Coast region, expect an increase in cloud cover, chances for rain (especially farther east), and temperatures to lock in near normal values for mid May. Once the low begins to push northward and eastward into the middle of next week, the effects of shortwave ridging moving out of the Desert Southwest will bring warmer temperatures into our forecast area. High temperatures in the 80s to 90s could become widespread by Wednesday and Thursday. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions were observed at 0530Z at all TAF sites. VFR conditions wl prevail until after 09Z with the exception of the south where lower conditions may develop earlier due to a stalled front across the area. After 09Z MVFR/IFR conditions wl be psbl until after 14Z when conditions wl begin improving. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA wl develop in the south by 18Z and spread north into the cntrl portions of the area during the aftn. The TSRA wl decrease in coverage after 00Z Sat but affect the northern TAF sites by the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 60 73 60 74 / 40 50 40 60 Meridian 59 72 57 74 / 40 60 40 70 Vicksburg 60 72 59 71 / 30 40 30 50 Hattiesburg 62 76 60 77 / 50 60 30 60 Natchez 61 71 58 71 / 30 40 30 50 Greenville 58 70 59 73 / 20 20 30 50 Greenwood 58 73 59 76 / 20 30 40 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/NF/22