FXUS64 KJAN 090203 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 903 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Rest of Tonight...Isolated convection will continue to develop and dissipate soon thereafter over the next couple of hours, as a disturbance aloft embedded in zonal flow continues to exit the region. As heating wanes and the disturbance moves out, convection will come to an end, with quiet conditions expected during the overnight hours. Some patchy ground fog will be possible toward day break Friday, with low stratus also developing. Otherwise, look for low tonight to fall into the low to middle 60s. The ongoing forecast is in good shape. Other than some minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major changes will be made on tonight's update. /19/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Through Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in northeastern portions of our forecast area where moisture is sufficient enough for some uncapped convection. Most of the area should remain clear, through the evening, but storms in those areas to the northeast could become strong to severe with decent deep-layer shear to organize updrafts. A Marginal Risk for severe storms remains in place into this evening. Residual moisture overnight could lead to some patchy fog development early Friday morning, however HREF probabilities are fairly low, and low PWAT values at present suggest only shallow moisture will be available for fog to develop in low-lying areas. Friday through Thursday: The weather pattern through the end of this week and into next week will be dominated by a closed low pressure system cutting off from buckled flow over the Gulf Coast. Returning moisture from the south tomorrow could support some additional strong to severe storms in southeast Mississippi, and a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been issued for the afternoon and evening hours to account for this potential. A resulting rex block pattern introduces some uncertainty for how quickly the cutoff low will lift northward again, but guidance in decent agreement for showing the low move into the Midwest around Tuesday in advance of a deepening trough over the U.S. West Coast. While this low spins over our Gulf Coast region, expect an increase in cloud cover, chances for rain (especially farther east), and temperatures to lock in near normal values for mid May. Once the low begins to push northward and eastward into the middle of next week, the effects of shortwave ridging moving out of the Desert Southwest will bring warmer temperatures into our forecast area. High temperatures in the 80s to 90s could become widespread by Wednesday and Thursday. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Still seeing some isolated to widely scattered convection across our northern and northeastern airspace as well as our far southwest airspace early this evening but given the coverage, will handle this with AMDs if necessary. Should see this cu field gradually dissipate later this evening with the possibility of some fog forming in advance of a very slow moving cold front after midnight towards the predawn hours across our southern and southeastern airspace. Cannot rule out a return to post frontal MVFR ceilings after midnight and pre-frontal MVFR/IFR ceilings where the lower VSBYs could exist. After sunrise, should see a gradual rise in ceilings but did introduce VCSH or VCTS from late morning through the afternoon given the proximity of an upper low trough ovhd and daytime heating. Berry/SHV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 80 60 73 /10 40 40 50 Meridian 61 81 59 72 / 10 40 40 60 Vicksburg 62 79 60 72 / 0 30 30 40 Hattiesburg 63 81 62 76 / 10 70 50 60 Natchez 63 79 61 71 / 10 50 30 40 Greenville 63 77 58 70 / 10 20 20 20 Greenwood 62 79 58 73 / 10 30 20 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19