FXUS64 KJAN 021815

AFDJAN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Jackson MS

115 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New DISCUSSION...



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Rest of the Afternoon through Thursday...High pressure aloft and at 

the surface continue to slowly build east into the region, as a 

mid/upper level trough slowly exits east of the forecast area.  This 

trough is responsible for a frontal boundary that continues to 

slowly sink south through the CWA this evening and overnight. Behind 

the front, slightly drier air will filter south into the region. 

While along and ahead of it, very humid conditions will persist, 

with some isolated showers and storms developing, particularly along 

and south of the Highway 84 corridor.  This convection will 

gradually dissipate after sunset this evening. Overnight, expect 

mostly clear skies with some patchy shallow ground fog possible 

around day break Thursday, as lows range from the upper 60s to lower 

70s.



On Thursday, northwest flow aloft will exist across the region as we 

remain between the departing trough along the east coast and the 

high to the west.  An upper level disturbance embedded in this flow 

will help to spark some showers and storms across mainly west 

central and southwest portions of the CWA during the mid and later 

parts of the afternoon.  Gusty wind will be possible with the more 

intense storms, with frequent lightning and heavy downpours likely. 

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area will remain dry, as 

highs warm into the low and middle 90s. /19/



Wednesday night through Tuesday: Warmer than normal afternoon highs 

will continue through the forecast period. Cooler than normal 

morning lows are expected in the northeast Thursday and Friday but 

return to above normal areawide Saturday morning and continue 

through the end of the forecast period. Normal lows run in the lower 

70s and normal highs run in the lower 90s. Peak heat index values at 

or above 105F will spread become a concern in the west Sunday and 

then spread a little farther east each day through Tuesday. 

Otherwise, little has changed from the previous long term forecast 

and the previous discussion follows:



In general, the evolving weather pattern of the next several days 

will support lower rain chances as drier air is ushered into our 

forecast area. The two main drivers of this pattern will be upper-

level ridging that will shift from the Plains eastward toward the 

Mid-South and a low pressure disturbance slowly drifting west along 

the Gulf Coast region. Subsidence associated with the ridge and the 

southward trajectory of drier continental air between these two 

features should push regional PWAT values below 1.5 inches for about 

the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area Wednesday night. Mostly 

drier weather expected Thursday and again on Friday, July 4th. Area 

residents should still mind the weather as an isolated shower or 

storm cannot be ruled out for the holiday afternoon/evening.



Depending on exactly how the coastal disturbance evolves, these 

"ribbons" of moisture may overspread portions of the region with 

very slight rain chances in the forecast at this time through 

Sunday. Increased humidity and more typical summery temperatures 

and afternoon/evening chances for showers and thunderstorms build 

back into the area for Monday and Tuesday next week. /22/NF/



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Ceilings are gradually improving as a frontal boundary continues 

to sink south through the region this afternoon. Isolated 

convection is possible this afternoon across areas mainly along 

and south of the Highway 84 corridor, i.e. KHEZ and KHBG. If 

convection is observed, flight categories will fall to MVFR/IFR 

status due to degraded ceilings and visibilities for a brief 1-2 

hour period of time. Towards day break Thursday, some patchy 

ground fog could again reduce categories to MVFR status briefly. 

Winds will have a northerly component this afternoon at around 5 

knots, and will be light to calm tonight. /19/ 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Jackson       71  92  72  93 /   0  10   0  10 

Meridian      69  92  70  94 /   0   0   0   0 

Vicksburg     73  94  73  93 /   0  10   0  10 

Hattiesburg   72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0  10 

Natchez       73  93  74  90 /   0  20  10  10 

Greenville    72  92  72  93 /   0  10   0   0 

Greenwood     72  92  71  95 /   0  10   0   0 



&&



.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MS...None.

LA...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



19/22/19