FXUS64 KJAN 020057 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 757 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 736 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The remains of the afternoon convection continues to affect portions of our area. A squall line which developed from the main cluster has broken up, and scattered showers and thunderstorms extend along a line from around Hattiesburg, MS back towards Bastrop, LA. A few isolated storms are north of the combined cold pool in northern Mississippi, and light rain from the anvil blowoff is trailing across central and eastern Mississippi. Bumped up POPs to make sure a slight chance for showers and storms continued through around 9 PM this evening. Otherwise expect weather to quiet down overnight. A weak frontal boundary pushing into the region and northwest flow aloft will usher in drier air for our region. PWAT values for the northeastern 2/3rds of our CWA tomorrow afternoon should be 1.5 inches or below. Slight chance to chance POPs remain mainly in the US Highway 84 corridor for tomorrow afternoon. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Rest of the Afternoon into Tonight...A trough passing to our north will continue pushing a frontal boundary south and into the forecast area through Wednesday morning. This will continue to aid in sparking showers and storms across the forecast area through the remainder of this afternoon into the overnight hours. With the unstable airmass over the CWA, coupled with some extra forcing along the front and deep-layer shear around 30 knots, the potential for isolated severe storms will continue into this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms, with frequent lightning and heavy downpours likely. With the loss of daytime heating, convection is forecast to wane in both coverage and intensity as we approach midnight, but some isolated showers and storms can't be ruled out overnight as the front continues its southward trek. Otherwise, look for another mild night, despite some slightly drier air beginning to advect into the region in the wake of the front, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/ Wednesday through next Tuesday... The passage of a frontal boundary tonight will usher in a period of persistent dry weather through the end of the week. A drier airmass will settle over the region as northwesterly flow aloft prevails, allowing temperatures to reach the mid 90s by Friday. Rain chances will remain extremely low, with only isolated precip possible, primarily across the southern portions of the CWA, where probabilities remain less than 10%. By Saturday, moisture looks to begin to increase again, increasing the possibility for heat stress conditions. Additionally, chances for diurnal convection will gradually increase heading into early next workweek./KP/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Earlier SHRA and TSRA will continue to decrease in coverage in the first few hours of the TAF period. Winds will remain variable, but a weak front moving into our area may turn some winds out of the north before 12Z Wednesday. Patchy BR cannot be ruled out overnight - especially in the wake of this eveing's rainfall - but confidence at any particular site was too low to mention any visibility restrictions in the TAFs at this time. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 91 70 91 / 40 10 0 0 Meridian 71 91 69 92 / 50 10 0 0 Vicksburg 74 92 72 92 / 30 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 94 72 95 / 40 20 0 0 Natchez 73 91 72 92 / 30 10 0 10 Greenville 72 91 71 91 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 71 92 70 92 / 20 0 0 0&& .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/NF