FXUS64 KHUN 220901 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 401 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 401 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 - The recent warm weather pattern will continue today, with a low potential for record breaking high temperatures this afternoon. - A cooler airmass will arrive Monday and remain in place through mid-week. - Low chances of showers and thunderstorms exist at various times from mid-week through Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 In the mid/upper-levels, a northwest flow of 25-35 knots will continue across the local forecast area throughout the near term period, as we will remain along the northeastern flank of a subtropical ridge across the southwestern CONUS (that will become less amplified with time as a developing trough shifts eastward across central Canada and the northern Plains). Broad scale subsidence in this regime (as well as in the wake of an embedded shortwave trough that will dig into the central FL Peninsula by the end of the period) will ensure a continuation of dry conditions region-wide. Early morning temperatures appear on track to reach the m50s in the sheltered valleys of northeast AL (where some patchy fog will be possible) to the l-m 60s elsewhere. With only a few passing high clouds and a scattered coverage of fair- weather cumulus, SSW flow (occasionally gusting to 20-25 MPH) within the warm sector of a surface low tracking from the central Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic states will allow afternoon high temperatures to reach or slightly exceed observed values from yesterday (l80s in elevated terrain and m-u 80s elsewhere). && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 As the aforementioned upper level shortwave continues to lift northeast, our focus will shift to a sfc low and subsequent frontal boundary pushing southeastward through the OH River Valley. This will bring a low chance (10% or less) of showers to the Tennessee Valley on Monday. Confidence in this is low as higher chances of rain remain to our northeast where better forcing exists. Therefore, a dry forecast continues through all of the short term. Highs during this time are forecast to reach the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight lows dropping into the 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 A strong 5h anticyclone over the Desert Southwest will flatten somewhat and shift east into Texas and the Gulf states from mid to late next week. West-northwest flow will be predominant across the northern 2/3 of the CONUS which will bring several weak shortwave impulses through. An 8h thermal ridge will also expand from the Plains east through the OH and TN valleys by Thursday into Friday. Low level jet convergence yields the development of a potential small MCS Wednesday night into early Thursday across the lower OH valley, which dissipates as it reaches east TN and most likely misses our forecast area to the northeast. Something to watch nonetheless, but at this time, the probability of rain will be very low here on Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will drop south into the lower MO and OH valleys on Thursday afternoon and night with more widespread showers and thunderstorms along it. The front makes progress into the TN valley Friday and Friday night, but low level flow/convergence weakens and shortwave support looks limited. Thus, PoPs looks to remain quite low at this stage and this far out. For temperatures, after highs in the 70s Wednesday, lower to middle 80s return Thursday, and upper 70s to lower 80s are forecast Friday depending on the progress and nature of the cold front and cloud cover/precipitation trends. A distinct cool down is expected by Saturday with highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR conditions will persist at the HSV/MSL terminals this TAF period, with a few-sct coverage of Ci as well as sct Cu (which may begin to develop shortly before 12Z and remain prevalent thru late this afternoon). Due to a lgt SW wind (~5 kts), any development of BR/FG early this morning should be confined to wind-sheltered locations. Sfc flow will increase to 10G18 kts by 15Z before falling back in to the 5-10 kt range this evening. However, due to notable strengthening of a westerly low-level jet (ahead of an approaching cold front), LLWS was introduced beginning at 2Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...HC LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...70/DD