FXUS64 KHUN 090804 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 304 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 In wake of the showers and storms that rumbled across the region yesterday afternoon/evening, cloud cover has largely broken up across the Tennessee Valley. Moist boundary layer conditions along with calm winds have created an environment favorable for fog formation. This is especially true in sheltered river valleys, where locally dense fog has developed near Lake Guntersville and the Paint Rock and Flint River valleys. This locally dense fog isn't widespread enough to warrant an Advisory, but we will need to keep an eye on this over the next 3-4 hours. Clouds will move back into the area later today, making for a mostly cloudy and slightly cooler afternoon. Still sufficient breaks in the morning will allow for ample heating and temperatures to climb back to the mid 70s. Only minor tweaks made to the forecast based on the latest obs/trends as everything remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The front stalls between southern Alabama and central Alabama late this afternoon into Friday night. This should keep any chances of rain out of the forecast in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee Friday tonight. Mid/high cloudiness will likely linger well north of the front though over the area. This cloud cover and slightly higher winds should keep fog at bay. By Saturday morning, models continue to show a surface low developing along the front in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This moves to the north during the morning hours on Saturday. This will likely bring high chances of widespread rainfall into the area late in the morning into the afternoon hours. Can't rule out a few thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Rain chances should lower Saturday night with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. We start to see a REX block setup over the east coast into early next week. The surface low moves north but gets caught between the two ridge axes setting up on either side of the Tennessee Valley area aloft. The end result will be an extended period of rainy and possibly stormy conditions at times into the middle of next week (maybe through Thursday). We will have to watch for a developing flooding risk as we move into next week. Some higher shear moves into the areas near and east of the I-65 corridor on the east side of the surface/upper low Monday through Wednesday. Ample instability looks to be in place for some periods of strong to maybe severe weather at times during the afternoon/early evening hours. It will be cooler due to the persistent/wet pattern expected. Highs will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s mostly during this period. Current NBM warms things up and dries us out as early as Wednesday. Think this is a bit optimistic, but left it for now. Typically, rex block patterns do not break up that quickly. By Thursday though, strong upper level ridging does look to build over the southeast in most guidance. This looks a bit more reasonable for us to truly dry out. Highs should rebound back into the 83 to 88 degree range with sunny skies returning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Scattered VFR clouds will gradually give way to BKN decks of lower stratus early Friday morning and potentially some light fog. Once fog dissipates, the MVFR status decks will continue through much of the day, before gradually lifting to VFR levels late in the day. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...AMP