FXUS64 KHUN 090459 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1159 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Thankfully, the round of severe weather has ended for tonight. Many areas have already seen areas of clearing and winds becoming calm in northern Alabama. Expect on and off rounds of mid/high clouds pushing east across the area at times (maybe a more partly cloudy period through 3 AM) ahead of a cold front currently in northern Tennessee into southern Missouri. Cloud cover could increase a bit towards daybreak, but with calm winds, temperatures could quickly fall to dewpoint values between now and 3 or 4 AM. This will likely allow patchy dense to some areas of dense fog to form in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee into the daybreak hours on Friday. Right now, not confident enough to include widespread dense fog in the forecast that could constitute issuing a Dense Fog Advisory, but conditions will need to be monitored overnight in case this develops. Either way, fog will likely linger until around 8 or 9 AM in the morning before lifting. Then expect sunny conditions to start the day. Cloud cover will remain in place ahead of the front into the day on Friday. As the weakening front moves into central Alabama during the afternoon hours, an isolated shower or thunderstorm could occur. Confidence is very on this precipitation occurring. Cold air advection and cloud cover should keep highs from climbing above the lower to mid 70s. Winds should pick up to around 10 mph with some gusts up to 20 mph possible in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The front stalls between southern Alabama and central Alabama late this afternoon into Friday night. This should keep any chances of rain out of the forecast in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee Friday tonight. Mid/high cloudiness will likely linger well north of the front though over the area. This cloud cover and slightly higher winds should keep fog at bay. By Saturday morning, models continue to show a surface low developing along the front in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This moves to the north during the morning hours on Saturday. This will likely bring high chances of widespread rainfall into the area late in the morning into the afternoon hours. Can't rule out a few thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Rain chances should lower Saturday night with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. We start to see a REX block setup over the east coast into early next week. The surface low moves north but gets caught between the two ridge axes setting up on either side of the Tennessee Valley area aloft. The end result will be an extended period of rainy and possibly stormy conditions at times into the middle of next week (maybe through Thursday). We will have to watch for a developing flooding risk as we move into next week. Some higher shear moves into the areas near and east of the I-65 corridor on the east side of the surface/upper low Monday through Wednesday. Ample instability looks to be in place for some periods of strong to maybe severe weather at times during the afternoon/early evening hours. It will be cooler due to the persistent/wet pattern expected. Highs will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s mostly during this period. Current NBM warms things up and dries us out as early as Wednesday. Think this is a bit optimistic, but left it for now. Typically, rex block patterns do not break up that quickly. By Thursday though, strong upper level ridging does look to build over the southeast in most guidance. This looks a bit more reasonable for us to truly dry out. Highs should rebound back into the 83 to 88 degree range with sunny skies returning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Scattered VFR clouds will gradually give way to BKN decks of lower stratus early Friday morning and potentially some light fog. Once fog dissipates, the MVFR status decks will continue through much of the day, before gradually lifting to VFR levels late in the day. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...AMP.24