FXUS64 KHUN 070727

AFDHUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

227 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



...New NEAR TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 227 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



 - A low chance of thunderstorms will continue through early this

   morning. 



 - A cooler air mass will move into the region today and Friday,

   with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s and

   50s.



 - Low to medium chances for showers and a few thunderstorms

   return this weekend



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Today)

Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue to pass

through the Tennessee Valley early this morning in wake of a

front that has passed through the region. This activity could

result in brief downpours/ponding of water on roads and occasional

lightning over the next few hours. These showers will wane by 

12z, with light northerly flow reinforcing a cooler air mass in 

their wake. Additionally, low stratus will persist through the 

late morning, before gradually breaking up during the afternoon. 

These clouds and light northerly flow will make for a much cooler 

day as highs will struggle to climb above the upper 60s to lower 

70s, despite a some peeks of sunshine in the afternoon. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Thursday night through Saturday)

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



When you wake up, temperatures should be in the upper 40s to 

around 55 degrees. Strong cold air advection is forecast on 

Thursday. In addition, mostly cloudy conditions will be in place 

in the early morning hours before clearing. Despite good 

insolation after that, highs will be hard pressed to reach the mid

60s to around 70 degrees in the afternoon. 



Most guidance has mid/high cloud cover building back into the area

from the west and south Thursday night into Friday. This is in

part due the front to our south slowly edging northward and a new

trough axis quickly moving south through NW flow into the Ohio

Valley sw into eastern Texas. 



However, most guidance does not edge the frontal boundary much

further north than southern into southern or central Alabama and

Georgia. At the same time, it keeps the better moisture convergence

and forcing with the approaching longwave trough axis much 

further north of the area closer to the southern Ohio Valley. That

being said, models do produce some isolated to scattered QPF over

portions of northern Alabama Saturday afternoon. There is some

surface based instability, but shear is very weak over the area.

So a few thunderstorms will be possible, but do not look very

strong right now.  



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Deeper moisture interacting with passing upper level support, 

will bring low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms by

Saturday night. Convection should become more numerous in 

coverage as we go into Sunday, when the best rain chances will be 

realized. Overall, storm strength looks to be "general" in 

intensity, with the usual gusty winds, lightning, and heavy 

downpours. Forecast CAPE values on Sunday range from ~500 to 1500 

J/kg, with 0-3 km helicity generally less than 100 m/s. 

Precipitable water amounts however do increase to 1.5 to 1.6 

inches; thus excessive bouts of rainfall cannot be ruled out with 

the heaviest convection Sunday. 



The passage of a cold front, and high pressure building from the NW 

will bring shower activity to an end Sunday night. Dry weather will

return Monday. Yes, eastern Canada upper troughing will remain in

place, with a ridge west / trough east pattern becoming more

established over the Lower-48 next week. Far as temperatures, a 

stout southerly flow will produce seasonably mild conditions Sunday,

with highs to around 80. After the front passes, cooler conditions 

return Monday with highs nearly 10 degrees cooler, only rising to the

lower 70s. Chilly conditions are expected Monday night with lows in 

the mid 40s. Under generally sunny skies, a bit warmer Tuesday with 

highs into the mid 70s. Even warmer Wednesday with highs to around 80

degrees. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



IFR to low-end MVFR conditions will prevail overnight with

ceilings around 700 to 1500 ft at times due to low stratus. By

late this morning, ceilings will rise to VFR conditions through

the remainder of the period. Winds will remain out of the NNW

between 5-10 kts. 



&&



.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...AMP.24

SHORT TERM....RSB

LONG TERM....RSB

AVIATION...AMP