FXUS64 KHUN 020001

AFDHUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

701 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



...New AVIATION...



.NEAR TERM...

(Tonight)

Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Stratus clouds that covered much of the area earlier today have

finally mixed out as strong daytime heating and mixing dominated. 

The heating has resulted in a very unstable environment, with 

surface based CAPES in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. A few short-lived

showers have developed over the past couple of hours, but have 

dissipated thanks to slightly warmer air moving in at the mid 

levels. However, further surface heating and the approach of the 

front will help more showers and thunderstorms to form in the 

later afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could become 

strong to severe with damaging wet microburst outflow winds the 

main threat.



A threat for convection will diminish from west to east as we go

into the late evening and overnight. The front should be south and 

east of the area around midnight. A light NW flow of drier air is

expected in the overnight. Despite generally clear skies and light

winds, fog development should be minimal as we go towards daybreak

Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight should cool into the mid/upper 

60s. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Wednesday through Friday)

Issued at 1024 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



A broad subtropical ridge will build into the Deep South mid to

late week, just in time for the 4th of July holiday festivities.

In short, what this will mean will be dry weather for outdoor

activities, including fireworks! Ample sunshine provided from the

strong subsidence (clear sky) from this ridge will allow for a

warming trend as highs will warm into the lower 90s in most

locations -- and potentially the mid 90s in some areas on the

Friday (4th of July). The combination of some rising dewpoints

during this timeframe could create heat index values close to the

100 degree mark by Independence Day. Thus, those with outdoor

plans should prepare for the heat and review heat safety rules. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Monday)

Issued at 900 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025



A mid to upper level ridge axis will amplify and build east into

this weekend, spanning much of the southern CONUS. This will yield

gradual heating each day into the lower 90s through Sunday into 

Monday. Surface flow will become south-southwesterly again and

will advect dew points back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. At

this time, no thunderstorms are anticipated Friday or Saturday, 

but by Sunday afternoon, low chances are introduced to the 

forecast.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 701 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



VFR conditions are forecast to prevail with isolated thunderstorms

diminishing this evening. Skies are forecast to slowly clear 

overnight and patchy fog may develop especially over areas that

received rainfall recently. No fog was mentioned in the TAFs at

this time but we will monitor overnight in case this becomes an

issue. Light winds will remain northwest to northerly through the

TAF period.



&&



.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...RSB

SHORT TERM....AMP

LONG TERM....17

AVIATION...25