FXUS64 KHGX 122316 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 516 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - More fog, both inland and marine, expected tonight. Dense fog advisories are a possibility. - Fairly strong cold front, and associated scattered showers in advance, will pass through Saturday night. Freezing overnight temps still looking probable over the northeast half of the region Sunday night. - Moderating conditions next week with readings back into the 70s by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Warm and humid airmass will linger across the region tonight, Saturday, and into late Saturday evening. Light winds and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to more fog development tonight...some of which will probably be dense again. Chances for some scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated tstm or two, should be on a gradual increase through the day as moisture pools ahead of the next front that'll be pushing through the region late Saturday night. Precip will taper off in the wake of the front...followed by some considerably colder and breezy conditions Sunday. Anticipate we'll see high temps in the morning for most locations followed by steady or falling readings into the 50s during the day. Freezing overnight lows are expected east of a Burleson-Waller-High Island line. Will likely need to issue Freeze Warnings for the counties that haven't achieved their first freeze of the season. It's not out question that parts of Houston County (not city) flirt with a brief hard freeze (~40% chance). Cool dry wx will persist early next week, eventually moderating as high pressure exits to the east and we see SE winds resume. Before you know it we'll be right back to lows closer to 60F and highs well into the 70s by midweek. As far as rain chances go, they appear somewhat low other than iso-sct WAA type shra in the midweek timeframe. May, or may not, see the next front next Friday...but the pattern/details are still somewhat fuzzy between models at this time. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 As always in this kind of environment, confidence is quite high that flight conditions will drop to IFR or worse overnight, but confidence in how it precisely plays out is much less certain, and TAFs will need high maintenance through the night. Like this morning, expecting a slow crawl back to better conditions tomorrow, and while I expect a general return to VFR...eventually...it will likely take much of the day to occur and only just barely limp over the threshold. Until those CIGs/VSBYs drop, there is a subtle line of isolated showers that could impact SGR/HOU for an hour or so and so have a TEMPO for -SHRA to account for that. Tomorrow, also may see some isolated -SHRA and considered PROB30s for the four Houston area terminals, but not quite enough confidence in specific impact to go there. However, with cold front approaching at the end of the IAH extended, did opt for a PROB30 at the very end. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Another couple rounds of fog are expected tonight into mid-late morning Saturday, then again Saturday night into early Sunday morning as warmer air overspreads the cooler waters. Fog may become dense at times. Light onshore winds and low seas will generally prevail until the next cold front and associated scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms pass through the bays prior to sunrise Sunday. This will bring an end to the fog threat, but gusty north and northeast winds and building seas will fill in behind the front. Gusts close to gale are possible in the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories will be required at a minimum Sun-Sun night. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 61 76 49 58 / 20 20 40 10 Houston (IAH) 63 76 56 63 / 20 30 60 20 Galveston (GLS) 65 74 60 64 / 30 20 50 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...47