FXUS64 KHGX 092340

AFDHGX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

640 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Saturday Night)

Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



A mid/upper level low will remain in the vicinity of the 

ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi River Valley heading into the weekend. 

Northerly flow should remain in place over the next few days, 

ushering in cooler conditions with highs in the upper 70s/mid 80s 

and lows in the 50s/60s. Conditions should trend drier as a result 

of the northerly flow, though wrap around moisture could bring some 

isolated light showers at times with occasional thunderstorms. 

Otherwise conditions should be mostly uneventful across SE Texas.



03



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through next Thursday)

Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Sunday continues to feature picture perfect weather for Mother's

Day with temperatures in the 70s across much of the area. A few

locations in the northern Piney Woods topping out in the upper

60s. The morning period may feature partly cloudy to mostly cloudy

skies; however, with daytime heating, expect cloud cover to

decrease through the afternoon. These temperatures can be

attributed to our placement with regard to an upper level cutoff

low...while the chances are low, warp around moisture from this 

cutoff low may also bring a couple of showers for far east 

locations (Liberty/Chambers/San Jacinto)..probabilities of this 

occurring are ~15% or less.



Heading into the work week, the aforementioned low will begin a NE

trajectory and ridging will build in from behind. As expected,

this ridging will lead to an upward trend in temperatures. Highs

starting off the work week will be in the 80s area wide, reaching

into the 90s by the end of the period. In addition to these

warming temperatures, onshore flow will return this week and

result in an increase in humidity as well. 



Speaking more on the increase in temperatures and humidity

values...we are approaching the time of year where the combination

of heat and humidity could create an issue...and while we are not

expecting values to approach or exceed advisory levels, heat index

values could reach above 100F later in the week (Thursday/Friday).

Taking a glance at ECMWF ensembles, 850mb temperatures are

approaching max percentiles for both Thursday and Friday. I do

want to echo the previous forecaster's notes and mention that

while a Heat Advisory is not expected at this time, it will be

hotter than what we are accustomed to this time of year. Be

mindful of the heat, particularly in the late afternoons and

exercise caution if working outdoors. 



Lows each night are projected to drop into the mid 60s at the

beginning of the period, and into the low 70s by the middle of

next week.



Adams/Brackeen



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period. With 

respect to weather, we will have some passing showers and iso 

thunderstorms through early tonight. Some storms could produce 

brief periods of gusty VRB winds along with outflow boundaries.

Otherwise, expect light N winds tonight, increasing to around 10 

KTS Sat morning with occasional higher gusts during the 

afternoon hours. 



Cotto - 24



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late 

this afternoon and evening, and then again on Saturday as different 

disturbances move across the region. High pressure builds in during 

the weekend and into the upcoming week, resulting in drier 

conditions for the rest of the week.  



Light to occasionally moderate offshore winds (generally from the 

north) will prevail today through late this weekend. Onshore flow 

resumes onMonday as the high pressure shifts to the east. A fetch 

of south-southeast winds around 20 knots are possible Tuesday night 

into Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels during 

this time-frame.



JM



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)	  60  79  57  75 /  30  20  20   0 

Houston (IAH)			  63  81  60  74 /  20  20  20  10 

Galveston (GLS)			  68  79  65  76 /  20  30  40  10 



&&



.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening 

     for GMZ370-375.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...03

LONG TERM....Adams

AVIATION...Cotto /24/

MARINE...JM