FXUS64 KHGX 071131 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 631 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - After a dry Thursday, forecast confidence continues to increase on a wet start to the weekend with a flash flood threat emerging through Friday into Saturday across southeast Texas. - Areawide rainfall totals of at least 1.5 to 2 inches (with locally higher amounts) are becoming more likely through Saturday. - Drier (and slightly warmer) weather returns by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 Active weather will continue for southeast Texas through the rest of the week as a mid-level area of low pressure injects diffluent, southwesterly flow aloft with additional moisture and vorticity through the next 48 to 72 hours. As of 11 PM CDT, the frontal boundary is now entering Galveston Bay and approaching the Upper Texas coastline, advecting some cooler temperature minimums overnight (low 60s north/low 70s near the coast) and also pushing the 70-degree isodrosotherm closer to the shoreline. This frontal boundary is expected to become more stationary through the day on Friday, serving as the near-surface instigator for convection. A synoptic environment of this type will also favor a moistened atmospheric column that will continue to recharge by Thursday night, as southwesterly flow aloft brings PWAT values from near 1.25 inches into the 1.5-1.75 inch range (potentially exceeding the 75-percentile for this time of the year). Medium-range guidance continues to suggest and reinforce forecast confidence in a flash flooding threat due to the efficient rainfall expected from convection. The highest remaining uncertainty remains with the spatiotemporal distribution of convective rounds through Friday and Saturday, however, travelers should prepare to exercise caution (especially in urban areas) throughout this time period. Long-range guidance continues to suggest a drier and warmer period (temperature maximums/minimums in the mid-to-upper 80s/upper 60s) by Sunday into Monday as the next frontal boundary arrives and the area of low pressure finally continues eastward into Louisiana. Post-frontal northwest flow aloft looks to be mostly dry through the middle of the week, however, future chances of precipitation cannot be ruled out later next week as that flow weakens. Cassel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 IFR-MVFR ceilings currently across SE Texas this morning, gradually lifting after 15Z. There is a chance for skies to scatter out a bit in the afternoon, however, some locations may remain under VFR BKN/OVC skies. Expect N-NE winds at 10-15 KTS with gusts of around 20 KTS at times. Winds will decrease in the evening and turn ENE. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop again overnight Thu into early Fri morning. On Fri, the chance for showers and storms return as a mid-level disturbance moves across TX. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 As of 11 PM CDT, Wednesday's frontal boundary has now entered Galveston Bay and will move offshore in the next few hours of the early morning on Thursday. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms (now at a 40-50% chance of development) is expected by Friday into Saturday. Post-frontal northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory, however, wind speeds could still exceed 20 kts. overnight Thursday further offshore into the Gulf. Long-range guidance suggests another chance of somewhat elevated post-frontal winds offshore by Monday. Cassel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 64 76 67 / 0 10 6070 Houston (IAH) 79 68 78 70 / 0 10 60 80 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 81 75 / 10 10 50 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Cassel