FXUS64 KFWD 100417 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1117 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated rain chances will continue through Sunday. - Record-breaking heat is expected Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Water vapor imagery shows an upper low slowly spinning over the Arklatex late this evening. Broad weak ascent associated with this feature resulted in a scattering of showers earlier today. This upper low will linger across the region through the weekend with continued low rain chances mainly across our eastern and central counties. Otherwise, intermittent cloud cover will spread across the region Saturday and Sunday with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70s and north winds 10 to 15 mph. Enjoy the seasonable temperatures as a dramatic warmup is expected by the middle of next week. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ Weather highlights next week will largely be centered around the rising temperatures, bringing near-record to record breaking heat across our region. Prior to the heat's arrival, an area of low-pressure will stall over Louisiana, keeping northerly winds in place across our region. Along with the north winds, partly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday. This area of low pressure will shift eastward on Tuesday with high pressure rolling in from the west. Our upcoming heat wave will commence on Tuesday as temperature make a 10-15 degree jump compared to Monday. Global ensemble guidance points at 850mb temperatures above the climatological 90th percentile, with ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails now highlighting western Central Texas as the area most likely to break temperatures records. Given the increasing confidence in this, the latest forecast will closely resemble the the NBM 50%-ile with the odds of hitting the triple digit mark now above 50% generally along and west of I-35. As the ridge shifts eastward on Thursday, temperatures will decrease slight, however, still remain above climatological normals. Highs on Thursday will be close to record highs once again as mid to upper 90s prevail. Our next rain chances will arrive next weekend as a dryline inches eastward into North and Central Texas and shortwaves return to our region. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with intermittent mid level clouds streaming across the region through Sunday. North winds 5 to 10 kt will increase to 10 to 15 kt during the afternoon hours. Any scattered showers on Saturday should be south and east of the major airports. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 78 57 76 58 / 10 0 0 5 0 Waco 60 78 57 76 55 / 20 10 5 5 0 Paris 58 75 55 69 56 / 5 0 10 20 0 Denton 57 78 53 76 53 / 5 0 0 5 0 McKinney 58 77 55 74 56 / 10 0 0 5 0 Dallas 62 79 58 76 59 / 10 0 0 5 0 Terrell 59 76 56 71 56 / 10 5 10 10 0 Corsicana 60 76 56 69 58 / 20 10 10 10 0 Temple 59 78 57 75 54 / 20 10 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 56 78 53 78 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$