FXUS64 KFWD 092351 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 651 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated storms will come to an end quickly this evening, with additional low rain chances in parts of Central and East Texas over the weekend. - Record-breaking heat is expected Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday/ A broad area of low pressure continues to drift along the Gulf Coast, causing weak northeasterly flow through the column locally. Broad ascent resulted in widely scattered showers this afternoon with a couple of isolated thunderstorms as well, but this activity will quickly diminish during the next couple of hours with loss of daytime heating. Overall, it will be a pleasant and dry evening for most areas with lows falling into the 50s. Similar conditions are forecast for tomorrow, although convective activity will probably stay more closely confined to the upper low center, which will limit the low rain chances to portions of Central and East Texas. There will be an increase in cloud cover over much of the region though, and this may hold highs a few degrees cooler compared to today with readings mostly in the mid and upper 70s. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ Weather highlights next week will largely be centered around the rising temperatures, bringing near-record to record breaking heat across our region. Prior to the heat's arrival, an area of low-pressure will stall over Louisiana, keeping northerly winds in place across our region. Along with the north winds, partly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday. This area of low pressure will shift eastward on Tuesday with high pressure rolling in from the west. Our upcoming heat wave will commence on Tuesday as temperature make a 10-15 degree jump compared to Monday. Global ensemble guidance points at 850mb temperatures above the climatological 90th percentile, with ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails now highlighting western Central Texas as the area most likely to break temperatures records. Given the increasing confidence in this, the latest forecast will closely resemble the the NBM 50%-ile with the odds of hitting the triple digit mark now above 50% generally along and west of I-35. As the ridge shifts eastward on Thursday, temperatures will decrease slight, however, still remain above climatological normals. Highs on Thursday will be close to record highs once again as mid to upper 90s prevail. Our next rain chances will arrive next weekend as a dryline inches eastward into North and Central Texas and shortwaves return to our region. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is on a decline within the D10 airspace early this evening, with only a 10% chance for additional showers at the TAF sites through the rest of the evening. Due to such a low potential, will omit precipitation from the 00z Metroplex TAFs and only show a brief mention at Waco through the next hour or so. Scattered mid cloud cover will be present overnight into Sunday within the 10-15 kft layer, while a north/northeast surface wind around 10 kts prevails. Showers and thunderstorms are largely expected to remain south and east of the TAF sites tomorrow, and none will be indicated in the forecast at this time. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 77 56 76 58 / 10 5 5 5 0 Waco 58 77 57 76 55 / 20 20 5 0 0 Paris56 75 55 71 56 / 5 5 10 10 0 Denton 55 77 51 76 53 / 5 5 5 5 0 McKinney 57 76 53 74 56 / 10 5 5 5 0 Dallas 60 78 58 76 59 / 10 5 5 5 0 Terrell 57 77 55 73 56 / 10 10 10 5 0 Corsicana 60 79 57 74 58 / 20 20 10 5 0 Temple 58 80 55 79 54 / 20 20 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 55 78 52 78 52 / 10 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$