FXUS64 KFWD 091745 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, then again tomorrow afternoon. - Record-breaking heat is expected Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/ A relatively comfortable weather day is expected across North and Central Texas thanks to the north winds keeping temperatures in the 70s across our region. Partly cloudy skies are in place as mid-level moisture advects from the north. An area of low-pressure will slide south into Louisiana this afternoon, providing enough mid-level support for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon during the peak-heating hours. Coverage will remain fairly low, and most locations will stay dry. Any shower or storm activity will likely develop in North Texas and shift south through the late afternoon hours. Precipitation will come to an end by 10pm leaving behind a tranquil night. None of this thunderstorm activity is expected to become severe. The weather pattern will remain fairly similar tomorrow as the area of low pressure remains across Louisiana. Once again, afternoon showers and isolated storms may develop across Central and East Texas tomorrow afternoon. No severe weather is expected. Precipitation will come to an end by 11pm tomorrow, once again leading to insignificant weather Saturday Night. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Onward/ Weather highlights next week will largely be centered around the rising temperatures, bringing near-record to record breaking heat across our region. Prior to the heat's arrival, an area of low-pressure will stall over Louisiana, keeping northerly winds in place across our region. Along with the north winds, partly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday. This area of low pressure will shift eastward on Tuesday with high pressure rolling in from the west. Our upcoming heat wave will commence on Tuesday as temperature make a 10-15 degree jump compared to Monday. Global ensemble guidance points at 850mb temperatures above the climatological 90th percentile, with ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails now highlighting western Central Texas as the area most likely to break temperatures records. Given the increasing confidence in this, the latest forecast will closely resemble the the NBM 50%-ile with the odds of hitting the triple digit mark now above 50% generally along and west of I-35. As the ridge shifts eastward on Thursday, temperatures will decrease slight, however, still remain above climatological normals. Highs on Thursday will be close to record highs once again as mid to upper 90s prevail. Our next rain chances will arrive next weekend as a dryline inches eastward into North and Central Texas and shortwaves return to our region. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR skies are ongoing and will likely continue through this forecast. There is a chance for a few showers and storms this afternoon within D10, however, coverage will remain low. Impacts to airports will be low as any shower/storm will be transient in nature. Across Central Texas, a similar trend is expected as storms shift south late this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the north through this TAF cycle with minimal weather disruptions expected. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 59 77 56 76 / 20 10 5 0 5 Waco 77 59 77 56 76 / 20 20 10 10 0Paris 75 56 74 54 71 / 20 5 0 5 10 Denton 75 54 76 51 76 / 20 10 5 0 5 McKinney 75 57 75 54 74 / 20 10 5 0 5 Dallas 77 60 77 57 76 / 20 10 5 0 5 Terrell 75 57 76 54 73 / 20 20 5 5 5 Corsicana 78 59 77 57 74 / 20 20 10 5 5 Temple 79 58 78 56 79 / 10 20 20 10 0 Mineral Wells 76 55 77 52 78 / 20 5 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$