FXUS64 KFWD 090804

AFDFWD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

304 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New Long Term... 



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms this 

  afternoon.



- Dry and hot weather returns next week, with highs in the 90s

  expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1220 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025/

/Friday through Saturday/



Scattered mid and upper cloud cover continues to stream across the

region tonight with light north winds at the surface and

temperatures in the 60s. The rest of tonight will feature

intermittent cloud cover and near normal temperatures with morning

lows expected to be in the upper 50s to near 60.



On Friday, a weak upper low will close off over the Arklatex with

North Texas positioned within an area of broad synoptic scale

ascent ahead of a shortwave trough rotating into the low. Lift

should become maximized during the mid afternoon hours coinciding

with peak heating and we'll likely see at least a few scattered 

showers and perhaps a thunderstorm develop. Generally weak wind 

fields, weak capping, and a lack of any notable surface forcing 

suggest that any convection will be disorganized with little

chance for severe weather. Coverage of any precipitation should be

highest east of I-35 where moisture is a little better. We'll have

PoPs at 20% to account for this activity. Any ongoing convection

will quickly diminish by early evening with loss of heating.



Otherwise, Friday night and Saturday should be relatively quiet as

the main upper low slowly drifts to the south. Mid and high level

cloud cover will likely linger into Saturday as moisture wraps

around the upper low. Any additional rain chance should be

confined to coastal areas and into Central TX south of our area

through the day Saturday.



Dunn



&&



.LONG TERM... /NEW/

/Saturday Night Onward/



An upper low will remain stationary over Louisiana for a good 24 

hours during the latter half of the weekend, while its surface 

counterpart meanders around the LA/MS coastal region. This will 

keep light north winds and seasonably cool temperatures in place 

through Sunday night, with Monday morning lows once again in the 

50s. The low will finally be kicked off to the northeast Monday 

through Tuesday as the next upper trough digs southward along the 

West Coast. The resulting ridge over the Plains will create a 

warming trend for the early to midweek period of next week. By 

Wednesday we will experience lows around 70 with highs in the 90s 

across the board. 



The ridge will shift slowly east during the second half of the 

week, which will knock a few degrees off afternoon temperatures 

Thursday and Friday, but above-normal readings can still be 

expected. This eastward shift may open the region up to some 

convection as a trough swinging through the Plains pushes the 

dryline east into the area late next Friday. Activity would likely

be isolated and dependent upon if the cap breaks. More widespread

showers and storms may finally re-enter the picture next weekend 

as another shortwave takes a farther south route through the 

Southern Plains. It is still quite a ways out, but being the 

middle of May all but ensures at least some potential for severe 

weather. We will gain more confidence in the severe weather 

potential as higher resolution guidance is received next week.



30



&&



.AVIATION... /Issued 1220 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025/

/6Z TAFs/



VFR will prevail through the period with a continued north flow

increasing to around 15 kt Friday afternoon. There is a low chance

for showers/storms Friday afternoon (~20%) and we'll continue with

VCSH for the time being. Otherwise, VFR will prevail Friday night

into Saturday.



Dunn



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  59  77  56  77 /  20  10   0   0   0 

Waco                76  58  77  56  77 /  20  10   5   0   0 

Paris               74  56  75  54  73 /  20  10   0   5  10 

Denton              76  54  76  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0 

McKinney            75  57  75  53  75 /  20  10   0   0   0 

Dallas              77  59  77  57  77 /  20  10   0   0   0 

Terrell             76  57  75  54  75 /  20  10   0   0   5 

Corsicana           77  58  77  56  76 /  20  10   5   0   5 

Temple              79  59  79  55  79 /  10   5  10   0   0 

Mineral Wells       77  55  77  51  78 /  20  10   0   0   0 



&&



.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$