FXUS64 KEWX 091149 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 649 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 The latest radar data shows some light returns across portions of the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor near and north of Austin. We have updated the forecast for the remainder of the early morning hours to add a mention of isolated showers for the above mentioned areas as well as farther east into the Highway 77 corridor from La Grange northward. Forecast soundings show a good amount of mid-level moisture remains in place today and with adequate moisture, daytime heating and some weak lift on the backside of an upper low, we should see some isolated convection during the afternoon hours. For most of the region, we will mention only showers, but did opt to keep a mention of thunder along the Rio Grande this afternoon. Convection will be tied closely to daytime heating, so we will remove the mention of precipitation for the evening and overnight hours. The overall pattern remains very similar on Saturday and we will add a low chance for mainly afternoon showers to the forecast. Highs today and Saturday will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Key Message: - High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 105 arrive next week. A lingering light shower is possible over the Coastal Plains Saturday night as a slow-moving upper-level low tumbles its way out of our region, but a push of dry mid-level air between 500-800mb will keep the weather generally quiet. Lows Sunday morning are likely to be in the 50s throughout South Central Texas, with good radiational cooling enabled by drier air over the Hill Country supporting lows in the low 50s and potentially localized upper 40s. Sunday's highs look to reach seasonable levels in the 80s followed by another night of cool lows heading into Monday morning before southerly flow brings in warm continental-tropical air into the area Monday. With southerly winds returning by late Monday and continuing through the rest of the long term forecast period, the main story for most of next week will be the upwards surge in temperatures. Positive tilt troughing over the western US will support a mostly dry influx of warm and stable air for several days. Highs above 100F are likely (at least a 60 percent chance) to spread across much of the Rio Grande Plains and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor by Wednesday, along with lows rising into the 70s by Thursday morning. Many sites will likely be breaking, meeting, or nearing daily record highs Wednesday and Thursday, with the probabilistic NBM estimating a roughly 70 to 80 percent likelihood of eclipsing daily records at our primary climate sites in Austin, San Antonio, and Del Rio. The latest ensemble guidance indicates above average warmth may continue through at least the rest of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Overall, no significant changes have been made to the latest aviation forecasts. Mainly mid-level clouds are expected through the period with some isolated afternoon convection across most of the region. With coverage only remaining isolated, we will not mention in the forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 83 62 80 59 / 20 20 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 61 79 58 / 20 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 61 81 58 / 20 20 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 79 58 79 56 / 20 20 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 62 87 60 / 20 20 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 60 79 58 / 20 20 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 85 59 82 55 / 20 20 20 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 60 80 57 / 20 20 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 61 79 58 / 20 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 62 81 60 / 20 20 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 63 82 61 / 20 20 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...Tran Aviation...Platt