FXUS64 KEWX 090105 AAB AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 805 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 We have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Maverick, Dimmit, Zavala, and Frio counties. The severe threat has shifted into South Texas. Localized flash flooding continues in Maverick County and Eagle Pass, where a Flash Flood Warning is in effect. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 We have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Val Verde, Edwards, Kinney, and Uvalde Counties as conditions begin to stabilize behind a departing MCV to the south over Maverick County. The severe threat across the Winter Garden Region will continue over the next hour then shift southeast into South Texas. Cancellation of the remaining counties in the watch in the EWX CWA will likely take place around 8PM. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Key Message: - Strong to severe storms late this afternoon and evening Showers and thunderstorms have mainly stayed on the periphery of the CWA today, but are expected to move over the area this afternoon and evening as a shortwave shifts east. Convective parameters support strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats. In the far west, some storms may cross over the Rio Grande as supercells with very large hail over two inches possible. As this activity moves southeast this evening, storms may form into more of a line as they move across the area. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with this activity which could lead to isolated flooding. WPC has maintained their level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall, mainly in the western half of the CWA. The bulk of activity will be out of our area a little after midnight with drier weather in the forecast for Friday. That said, some hi-res guidance is generating some very isolated activity over Texas tomorrow afternoon around peak heating, but have capped PoPs around 14 percent at this time. Northerly wind will be breezy tomorrow keeping highs on the cooler side from the upper 70s north and in the 80s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Key Message: - The heat is on next week with highs ranging from the 90s up to 105 There is a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly along and east of Highway 77 on Saturday. Otherwise, dry weather is forecasted for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures over the weekend range from mid to upper 70s to lower 80s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and mid to upper 80s across the rest of the local area. Can't rule out a few locations along the Rio Grande reaching the lower 90s. Dry weather conditions continue for the work week as an upper level ridge builds across the local area. A warming trend is expected through this period with highs getting into the mid to upper 90s across most locations across the local area and up to the 100 to 105 range along the Rio Grande. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Isolated severe storms south of 5T9-CZT line early this evening will continue southeast into South Texas. Stratiform rain shield with isolated embedded -TSRA to the north will move east through the evening, impacting SAT/AUS. Precipitation should exit to the east of the these TAFs after 03Z. VFR conditions prevailing, with the stratiform rain shield falling out of a 7-11K foot base. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 83 61 81 / 30 10 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 83 59 80 / 30 10 0 10New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 85 60 82 / 50 10 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 61 81 57 80 / 30 10 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 64 88 62 87 / 20 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 81 59 80 / 20 10 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 62 84 59 82 / 80 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 63 84 59 81 / 40 10 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 82 59 80 / 30 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 85 62 81 / 80 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 66 86 63 83 / 80 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...05 Aviation...76 Update...76