FXUS64 KEWX 030605 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" today through Saturday with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible. - Turning seasonably drier and warmer on Sunday through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A mid to upper level trough moves over our area today and Friday. The airmass remains unseasonably moist with PWs of 1.8 to 2.4 inches. Forcing by the trough and heating will generate rounds of showers over most areas with sufficient instability for isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms. As seen the last few days, locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches can be expected and may cause some minor flooding, especially where recent heavy rains have moistened soils resulting in faster runoff. In addition, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible as storms collapse. Due to the clouds and rain, below to well below average temperatures are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Most models are now leaving a remnant mid level feature over our area with less of an influence of the Subtropical Ridge through much of the weekend. As a result, the unseasonably moist airmass remains along with forcing by the feature and heating. Thus, have introduced low chances of showers and thunderstorms over most areas on Saturday and Rio Grande into Edwards Plateau on Sunday. The Subtropical Ridge builds more fully over our area next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms wane as the airmass dries under increasing subsidence. About the only rain chances will be with the seabreeze near the Coastal Plains each afternoon. Increased sunshine leads to temperatures warming to near to slightly above average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers at AUS will move north of the airport in the next hour with scattered showers expected to continue at DRT through at least sunrise. Ceilings will continue to drop in the west overnight with MVFR ceilings spreading to I-35 terminals around 08-10Z. IFR ceilings are likely from the Hill Country westward including DRT through mid morning which may just reach SAT/SSF around 11Z. Conditions return to VFR for I-35 terminals this afternoon while MVFR ceilings linger at DRT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon but timing and placement remain uncertain like previous days. For this issuance, have continued PROB30 groups for convection during the afternoon today. MVFR ceilings will likely to redevelop late tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 75 92 75 / 50 20 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 76 91 75 / 50 20 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 75 91 74 / 50 20 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 85 74 88 73 / 50 30 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 75 92 76 / 70 50 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 75 90 75 / 40 20 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 85 75 89 73 / 50 40 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 75 91 74 / 50 20 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 75 91 75 / 40 20 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 76 90 75 / 50 30 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 90 76 92 75 / 40 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...04 Aviation...27