FXUS64 KCRP 271829 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 129 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 122 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Strong frontal passage expected Tuesday evening, bringing much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and elevated to critical fire weather conditions in its wake. - A Fire Weather Watch in effect Wednesday morning through the evening. - A Gale Watch in effect Tuesday evening through late Wednesday. - Much Cooler temperatures behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A cold front associated with a strong upper level trough and a mid- level low will slide across the region sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. Most likely FROPA will be between 21Z Tuesday - 00Z Wednesday according to the latest deterministic model runs. It looks like the NAM/Euro are a bit faster than the GFS/Canadian. With the latest run winds look to be stronger and if this trend continues then will be looking at possibly needing a Wind Advisory for portions of South Texas late Tues into Wed. For now have gone ahead and issued a Fire Weather watch and a Gale Watch. Highs today will range in the mid 80s along the coast to the mid 90s today and upper 90s Tuesday. After the front, Wednesday's highs will range in the low to mid 70s. Then slowly warm back into the 80s and 90s this weekend. Overnight lows drop to the 50s Wednesday morning and down to the 40s across much of the region early Thursday. Then also warm back into the 60s this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 VFR conditions continue along with southeasterly to southerly winds with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon/evening. IFR/LIFR conditions due to fog/lower ceilings could affect ALI/VCT again tomorrow morning. Beyond this TAF period an approaching front will result in strong northerly winds and a low chance for showers/thunderstorms but more on that in the next package. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze today will strength to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) tonight ahead of a cold front Tuesday. The front is expected to move across the waters Tuesday night. Behind the front winds will shift northerly and increase to strong to near gale (BF 6-7). A Gale Watch has been issued Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed ahead of and after the Gale Watch. Rain/thunderstorm chances are moderate over the waters coincident with passage of the front late Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Tuesday evening/night a cold front will move through the region. Stronger winds and much drier air filter in behind the front increasing the Fire Weather risk Wednesday afternoon/evening to Elevated/Critical. Minimum relative humidity values across the region to the immediate coast will drop to 15-25% and 25-30% along the immediate coast for the remainder of the week. Combined with northerly winds 20-25 mph and gusts to around 30 mph with along with elevated Energy Release Component (ERC) values, generally in the 70- 90th percentile across much of the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend, through the forecast period will result in fire weather concerns. As such have issued a Fire Weather Watch from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday Evening. A Fire Danger statement and/or Red Flag Warning is likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 93 58 75 / 0 0 30 0 Victoria 68 91 52 72 / 0 20 10 0 Laredo 71 98 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 68 98 56 77 / 0 10 20 0 Rockport 75 89 59 75 / 0 10 40 0 Cotulla 69 96 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 69 96 58 75 / 0 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 77 87 63 74 / 0 0 50 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447. GM...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...BF/80