FXUS64 KCRP 092002 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 302 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Overall, calm weather conditions will dominate the short-term period, despite some lingering influence from a developing mid-level low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few showers could still develop this afternoon out west, provided enough moisture/instability, but chances are minimal and less than 15%. By tomorrow, energy from the aforementioned low and PWATs around 1.0-1.2 inches could spark some additional showers/storms mainly over the marine zones (PoPs 20-50%). Otherwise, expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures through Saturday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and highs in the 80s (what a treat!). && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Key Messages: - Hot temperatures return by Tuesday, with the potential for excessive heat concerns mid-week over the western half of the area. South Texas will remain under the influence of weak cool advection on Sunday as the back side of the upper low remains over the area. Expect temperatures near seasonal normals (near 90 west to low 80s east). A subsident mid-upper level ridge will then build over the region Tuesday commencing a warming trend that persists through the end of the week. Temperatures will be very summer like with highs around 105 west to the lower 90s east. Lower humidity levels will make the heat bearable at the beginning of the week. However by mid week heat indices could approach 110 over the brush country as surface dwpts increase. Rain chances will be near zero through the long term with dry conditions persisting through much of the following week as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle at area terminals. Winds will generally be out of the north with gusts to 20-25 knots this afternoon, before weakening overnight. Winds will restrengthen to above 12 knots mid Saturday morning, mainly at ALI/CRP sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A generally gentle to moderate northerly breeze (BF 3-4) will develop tonight and persist through Saturday night. There is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Gentle to moderate northerly winds on Sunday will transition light and variable on Monday before becoming southerly on Tuesday, with moderate to fresh southerly winds prevailing through the remainder of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A drier airmass will filter into South Texas behind a cold front today with dry northerly winds prevailing through the weekend. Min RHs will likely decrease below critical thresholds over the Brush Country starting Saturday and remain depressed through much of next week. ERCs will also gradually increase above the 75th percentile over western portions of the area by early next week although this increase may be slowed by recent rainfall. Despite these factors sustained 20ft winds will generally remain 15 knots or less through early next week limiting any fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 64 83 62 86 / 0 10 10 0 Victoria 61 82 58 83 / 0 20 10 0 Laredo 65 87 64 90 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 62 86 60 88 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 67 85 65 85 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 63 87 61 91 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 63 84 61 86 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 68 82 68 83 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM/88 LONG TERM....JM/75 AVIATION...ANM/88