FXUS64 KCRP 090914 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 414 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have tampered off in the region, though an isolated lingering shower can't be ruled out before daybreak. The overall synoptic pattern is expected to remain mostly the same thanks to the omega blocking pattern the country is under currently. This will keep that disturbance that caused today's severe weather, in the Dixie Alley region eventually forming a cutoff low. Thankfully with the environment being proverbially worked over and expected moisture to dry out today no showers and thunderstorms are expected. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s across the region today under mostly clear skies. A low to medium chance (20-45%) for showers and thunderstorms will exist for tomorrow due some energy from the cutoff low filters back through the region. This is expected to combine with a potential boundary that would develop just to north of the region. The caveat will be the amount of moisture available in the region as PWATs are only forecasted to be around 1 inch. Otherwise, thanks to the lack of moisture highs will only top out in the 70s and 80s across the region. This is likely our last time seeing highs like this for quite a while outside of potential convection days, so definitely enjoy it while you still can! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Key Messages: - After cooler temperatures Sunday, hot temperatures return by Tuesday, with the potential for excessive heat concerns mid-week over the western half of the area. The mid to upper-lvl low will gradually lift north-northeast Sunday into the new workweek with upstream ridging building towards the area in its wake. Northerly low-lvl flow on Sunday will shift to southerly by Tuesday (and remain southerly-southeasterly through mid- week) as the high to our north shifts east and several lee-side cyclones spawn over the High Plains. Due the dry low-lvl airmass and the subsident presence of the upstream ridge, rain chances will be virtually zero through Thursday. Seasonably cool temperatures Sunday will begin to moderate on Monday (and Monday morning's lows will likely be the coolest we will see until next fall), and then temperatures will quickly transition to well above normal Tuesday-Thursday as southerly flow becomes established. By mid-week, highs will reach well into the triple digits over western portions of the area, with 80s confined only to the immediate coast. As mentioned in previous discussions the potential for excessive heat headlines will have to be monitored, although the saving grace may be that the dry airmass may keep ApparentTs close to air temperatures over the western areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 As storms have pushed offshore, we can expect drier conditions to prevail through the remainder of the TAF cycle. VFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities will last through daybreak, as VFR conditions are expected to dominate Friday. Winds are expected to remain somewhat breezy through the east around 10-20 knots before becoming light and variable this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) northeasterly flow will continue through Friday becoming more northerly then decreasing to Gentle to Moderate (BF 3-4). Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will exist through this evening. Showers and thunderstorm chances will taper as we near daybreak before returning to a low to medium chance (30-45%) by Saturday. Gentle to moderate northerly winds on Sunday will transition light and variable on Monday before becoming southerly on Tuesday, with moderate to fresh southerly winds prevailing through the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 64 82 60 / 10 0 20 0 Victoria 84 60 81 57 / 10 0 20 0 Laredo 88 65 85 61 / 0 0 20 0 Alice 86 62 83 59 / 0 0 20 0 Rockport 85 67 83 64 / 10 0 20 10 Cotulla 89 63 84 61 / 0 0 20 0 Kingsville 85 63 82 59 / 10 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 84 68 81 67 / 10 0 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345- 442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP/92 LONG TERM....NC/91 AVIATION...NP/92