FXUS64 KCRP 062337 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 637 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 - A cold frontal passage this afternoon into Thursday will bring low to medium rain chances (20- 40%). - Medium to high chance (50-70%) of showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe and bring locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A cold front will continue to progress into our area this afternoon, with the wind shift already making it into northern counties as of 2 PM. Expect the wind shift to have cleared the area by sunset, with weak postfrontal cold advection peaking tonight into Thursday morning. Given that the boundary is well displaced from its upper-lvl support and the wind shift is outrunning cold advection do not expect much if any precipitation with the frontal passage for the majority of the area. There are signals in the latest CAM guidance that elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail could fire up near/in Webb county and the Rio Grande Plains late tonight into Thursday morning, but this threat should be confined to western areas. Thursday will be a dreary day (by May standards) as a low- lvl inversion supports thick and persistent stratus. Highs should top out in the 70s although there remains a fairly large spread in guidance with the NAM depicting us struggling to reach 70 while the warmest guidance forecasts highs in the low to mid 80s. These inverted northeasterly flow regimes tend to favor cooler solutions so leaned in that direction with the forecast (although it could be even cooler than currently forecast). Although the surface front should remain south of the area, ejecting shortwave energy riding along the 850-925 front will support isolated to scattered showers through the day. The most interesting period of the forecast period looks to be Friday into Saturday as the cold front lifts back north as a warm front and a fairly potent shortwave shifts toward the area. The low-lvl thermodynamic environment (namely the presence of capping) is the main source of uncertainty, but with robust moisture pooling (PWATS ~ 2 inches), and increasing dynamics and mid-lvl flow will need to closely monitor this period for severe potential and even hydro concerns, particularly if we can get multiple rounds of convection. Once the shortwave moves through Saturday, the second half of the forecast period looks drier, although some precipitation can't be ruled out with a weak cold frontal passage late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will generally run near seasonal normals with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are currently prevailing this evening due to a mixture of lowered CIGs and haze from the smoke of agricultural burns down in Mexico. A return to primary MVFR and even brief IFR CIGs is then likely tonight through most of the day on Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. As the front pushes through, winds will transition from east- southeasterly to northeasterly, generally around 8-12 knots. Any precipitation in the TAF period will likely be limited and light. Because overall precipitation potential remains low at this time, mention beyond VCSH was not included in the TAFs this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Gentle southeasterly winds this afternoon and evening, will shift northeasterly and becoming moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) behind a cold front late tonight into Thursday morning. Northeasterly flow shifts back east-easterly Friday to Saturday with speeds generally in the gentle to moderate range. Low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday through Saturday with highest chances late Friday into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 76 74 84 / 10 30 40 60 Victoria 68 77 68 81 / 10 20 30 70 Laredo 73 82 71 88 / 10 20 30 20 Alice 72 79 72 87 / 10 30 30 60 Rockport 73 77 74 85 / 10 30 40 60 Cotulla 69 78 68 84 / 10 20 30 30 Kingsville 73 77 73 86 / 10 30 40 60 Navy Corpus 75 76 76 83 / 10 30 40 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NC/91 AVIATION...KRS/98