FXUS64 KCRP 021127

AFDCRP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX

627 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



- Low to medium (20-50%) on Wednesday. 



- Seasonably hot and dry for remainder of the week including the

  Holiday Weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Today will see one last chances to wrench out high amounts of

PWATs (in excess of 2.33" per the 00Z July 2 KCRP sounding). Hi-

res models continue to stream chances for showers and

thunderstorms northward across South Texas throughout the morning.

Similar to as in days prior, brief gusty winds and moderate to

heavy rainfalls are the main impacts. 



The mid-level high pressure system that has brought in bouts of

showers/thunderstorms in the last few days will begin to moving

westward across Texas through Thursday. This will dwindle chances

for precipitation across South Texas heading into the Independence

Day weekend, with seasonal heat and up to a Moderate Heat risk.



Looking ahead into the upcoming week, a weak inverted trough in

the northern Gulf will increase chances for precipitation (20-30%)

for tropical-like showers and thunderstorms, bringing periods of

moderate to heavy rainfall rates and gust winds. These are looking

to be mainly confined to the open waters of the Gulf and along the

immediate coastline. Confidence will depend greatly on the

location of this inverted trough axis (if location south of

Louisiana waters, increased confidence). 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Mostly VFR conditions currently this morning with CIGs above 

3kft. Scattered showers continue to move northwest across the Rio 

Grande Plains and Brush Country. Isolated showers will be possible

this morning across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, as 

well. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected 

through the afternoon for COT and LRD with a medium to high 

(30-60%) chance. There is a 30% chance across ALI through the 

afternoon. VCT and CRP have a 20% or less chance for convection by 

this afternoon. IFR conditions are possible in and around the 

heavier convection. Outside of showers, VFR conditions are 

expected to prevail this afternoon, especially across the ALI, CRP

and VCT TAF sites. Rain chances decrease across S TX this evening,

with a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions expected for all S TX TAF 

sites through the overnight hours.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Gentle to moderate onshore flow (BF 3-4) and near 3 ft seas

persist through Friday night. Winds relax to mostly gentle flow

with 1-2 ft swell through the upcoming week. Chances for showers 

and thunderstorms primarily increase across the open waters from 

the upcoming week.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Corpus Christi    90  77  91  78 /  30  10  20   0 

Victoria          91  75  91  76 /  20  10  30  10 

Laredo            88  77  93  76 /  50  20  10  10 

Alice             90  75  91  75 /  30  10  20   0 

Rockport          89  80  89  81 /  30  10  20  10 

Cotulla           90  77  93  76 /  60  30  30  20 

Kingsville        89  76  90  76 /  30  10  10   0 

Navy Corpus       88  81  88  81 /  20  10  20   0 



&&



.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$





DISCUSSION...AE/82

AVIATION...TE/81