FXUS64 KBRO 270518 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Near or record-breaking heat lasts through Tuesday. - A cold front brings cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Hot, primarily rain-free conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday, with high temperatures well above normal for late October. Tuesday/Wednesday, a strong upper-level trough digging south into the central plains will push a strong cold front through deep South Texas Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This frontal passage will increase rain chances along the front (between 10-50%, highest chances along the coast), and bring windy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms along the front are not expected to be severe at this time, and inland extent is uncertain. Long range guidance agree the highest chances of rain to be over the Gulf (70%) and along the coast (50%) between midnight and sunrise Wednesday. Cold air advection behind this front is expected to bring much more seasonable temperatures for late October/early November in the latter half of the week, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, and overnight lows in the mid-upper 40s (excluding RGV and coast) to low 50s. Dry air behind the front could drop precipitable water to minimum values based on climatology (~0.5") or less, leaving relative humidity values in the teens. This paired with 20-foot winds 15 kts or greater may bring elevated fire weather concerns Wednesday in the eastern half of the CWA. Next weekend, this dry air should keep temperatures comfortable as highs climb through the 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Generally VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period at all TAF sites. While some shallow ground fog is possible around sunrise, the confidence was too low to include in the TAF package. However with the winds expected to be light and plenty of low- level moisture in the environment fog there is a low chance of fog at all TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Generally favorable conditions will persist until overnight Tuesday as an approaching cold front elevates seas to moderate with strong northerly winds. Near-gale gusts are possible early Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely be present Tuesday night through Thursday. Increased chances of rain (high, around 70 percent) over the Gulf will accompany the mid-week cold frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 73 93 65 / 0 0 0 50 HARLINGEN 95 69 96 60 / 0 0 0 40 MCALLEN 98 73 99 64 / 0 0 0 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 69 99 61 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 86 69 / 0 0 0 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 72 91 63 / 0 0 0 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....69 AVIATION...64-Katz