FXUS64 KBRO 221124 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 624 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm and rain-free weather conditions to persist through next weekend. * Near day-to-day borderline elevated wildfire weather threat will persist through next weekend. * A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Hidalgo, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties from 1-7 PM CDT Sunday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Unseasonably warm and rain-free conditions will persist through next week. Driving our weather pattern is an anomalously strong and large 588-594 dam Sonoran heat dome, which currently is resulting in a record-breaking, early season heat wave over the Southwestern U.S. On the eastern flank of this heat ridge, northwesterly winds aloft will continue to stifle any rain chances. High temperatures will range between the upper 80s to the mid 90s each day through next week. Over the weekend, high temperatures may cool slightly (mainly in the 80s) in response to a nearby frontal boundary. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s through next weekend. Fire weather concerns will remain on the table at times through next week. The combination of low relative humidity (RH) values, an ongoing drought, and at times breezy conditions will result in near day-to-day elevated fire risks. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Favorable marine conditions will prevail through next week with low to moderate winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for an elevated fire weather threat has been issued for Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Hidalgo, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties from 1-7 PM CDT Sunday. Breezy south-southeast 20-ft winds 15-20 mph gusting as high as 35 mph are expected to take place on Sunday. Meanwhile, minimum relative humidity (RH) values are expected to range between 15-40%. The combination of breezy south-southeast winds, low relative humidity (RH) values, and an ongoing drought ranging between D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) will result in an elevated risk for wildfires on Sunday. The Texas A&M Forest Service has outlooked all of Deep South Texas under a "High Risk" for wildfire danger on Sunday. Additionally, the Energy Release Component (ERC) will be elevated ranging between 75-80%. Additional Fire Danger Statements may be needed in the days ahead! We continue to urge everyone to continue to practice fire safety. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 85 65 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 63 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 69 78 69 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$