FXUS64 KBRO 122316 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 516 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Above normal temperatures through at least Saturday across Deep South Texas. - Medium to high (40-60%) rain chances on Sunday with the passage of a cold front. - Hazardous marine/beach conditions are expected behind the front on Sunday, continuing through at least Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Above normal temperatures will continue through at least Saturday across Deep South Texas, with highs in the 80s this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as low level southerly and southeasterly flow persists. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will translate across the southern half of the state this weekend, and in combination with meager moisture content, may result in isolated to scattered showers along and east of I-69E on Saturday. A cold front will arrive on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures, increased rain chances, and hazardous beach/marine conditions. There are still discrepancies among deterministic and ensemble guidance on the frontal passage timing, which will likely result in additional changes to the temperature forecast over the next 24-36 hours. As the front approaches and interacts with the warm, humid airmass in place across Deep South Texas, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day, with precipitation chances coming to an end as drier air filters in. Additionally, breezy post-frontal winds and responding seas will result in adverse boating conditions Sunday through Monday. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals on Monday, with highs in the 60s across most of the region. A warming trend will begin Tuesday, with temperatures back in the low 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Through 00z Sunday....VFR conditions will by and large be in place through the 00z TAF cycle. This evening and especially tonight, there could be instances of MVFR-LIFR ceilings developing. Southeast winds 10-15 kts this evening will wane and trend towards light and variable. During the day on Saturday, southeast winds will return with speeds between 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions with low to moderate seas and light to moderate winds will prevail through the first half of the weekend. Adverse marine conditions are expected on Sunday in response to the passage of a cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory conditions like through Sunday night into Monday morning. Conditions should improve by Tuesday, with favorable marine conditions prevailing through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 68 81 68 79 / 20 20 10 70 HARLINGEN 64 84 63 78 / 10 10 10 60 MCALLEN 68 86 67 80 / 0 10 10 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 85 65 79 / 0 0 0 70 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 69 74 / 30 40 20 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 79 64 77 / 20 20 10 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...23-Evbuoma