FXUS64 KBRO 091639 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1139 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Convection has finally cleared the entire BRO CWFA, with the most recent surface analysis showing a cold front draped over the western Gulf of America. With the center of 500 mb low pressure becoming positioned over Louisiana, and a west-northwest to east- southeast mid-level flow in place, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will experience dry weather from today through tonight. This synoptic situation will not change much for Saturday, but with the 500 mb low wobbling closer to the BRO CWFA, generally isolated convection may develop over the lower Texas coastal waters for the first half of the weekend. Temperature-wise, courtesy of the above-mentioned cold front, slightly below normal daytime highs and overnight lows will occur, aided by an offshore flow in the wake of the front. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 An upper-level cutoff low looks to linger over the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. By mid-week the cutoff low is expected to shift off to the northeast as upper level ridging builds across the southern plains. At the surface, northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to continue through the weekend, with southeasterly winds returning early next week. This will likely support near normal temperatures through the remainder of the weekend, with increasing temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Through 18z Saturday.....VFR conditions will continue to develop over the terminals through this afternoon and will persist through the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle a s high pressure influences increase. Northerly winds 10-15 kts with gusts as high as 20-25 kts or so will continue through this afternoon before waning later this evening and tonight. Northerly winds will pick up again on Saturday with magnitudes between 5-15 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported east winds around 16 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas slightly over 8 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 2:50 CDT/7:50 UTC. Adverse marine conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast today due to the recent passage of strong thunderstorms and anticipated increasing winds in the wake of a cold front, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore. Conditions will improve tonight, and generally be favorable on Saturday, with high pressure in control. Saturday night through Thursday...Generally favorable conditions are expected through the remainder of the weekend as light to moderate northerly to northeasterly winds and slight seas persist across the coastal waters. Winds will shift to the southeast early next week, with wind speeds increasing around mid week, possibly requiring Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Tuesday and wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 66 85 63 86 / 0 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 64 84 61 86 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 68 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 65 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 79 69 80 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 82 64 83 / 0 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...23-Evbuoma