FXUS64 KBRO 091100 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 600 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Convection has finally cleared the entire BRO CWFA, with the most recent surface analysis showing a cold front draped over the western Gulf of America. With the center of 500 mb low pressure becoming positioned over Louisiana, and a west-northwest to east- southeast mid-level flow in place, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will experience dry weather from today through tonight. This synoptic situation will not change much for Saturday, but with the 500 mb low wobbling closer to the BRO CWFA, generally isolated convection may develop over the lower Texas coastal waters for the first half of the weekend. Temperature-wise, courtesy of the above-mentioned cold front, slightly below normal daytime highs and overnight lows will occur, aided by an offshore flow in the wake of the front. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 An upper-level cutoff low looks to linger over the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. By mid-week the cutoff low is expected to shift off to the northeast as upper level ridging builds across the southern plains. At the surface, northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to continue through the weekend, with southeasterly winds returning early next week. This will likely support near normal temperatures through the remainder of the weekend, with increasing temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR will prevail through a majority of the TAF period. Diminishing winds with clearing skies will be the rule. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported east winds around 16 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas slightly over 8 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 2:50 CDT/7:50 UTC. Adverse marine conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast today due to the recent passage of strong thunderstorms and anticipated increasing winds in the wake of a cold front, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore. Conditions will improve tonight, and generally be favorable on Saturday, with high pressure in control. Saturday night through Thursday...Generally favorable conditions are expected through the remainder of the weekend as light to moderate northerly to northeasterly winds and slight seas persist across the coastal waters. Winds will shift to the southeast early next week, with wind speeds increasing around mid week, possibly requiring Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Tuesday and wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 84 66 85 63 / 40 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 84 64 84 61 / 20 0 10 0 MCALLEN 87 68 86 64 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 85 65 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 71 79 69 / 40 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 66 82 64 / 30 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$