FXUS64 KBRO 031726 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure across the Gulf continues to build through the end of the week, with drier air gradually cutting off rain chances before most Independence Day celebrations. Most of any leftover showers remain generally light tonight, with the best chance of rain shifting further north and coastal to offshore into early Thursday and across the brush country on Friday. Still expect near normal highs and lows, with cloud cover slowly diminishing through Friday. The humidity will help drive a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across the RGV through Independence Day. With it being a holiday weekend, nice weather, and a very borderline rip current situation due to wave heights around 3 ft and swell period at times reaching above 5 seconds, will bump up the rip current risk to moderate Thursday and Friday for some additional awareness. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The mid-level ridge pivots back across the Desert SW through the holiday weekend, allowing weak 500mb low pressure to nestle along the lower Texas coast and some low level moisture to bring back some rain chances. Above normal PWATs return Saturday into Wednesday, increasing POPs each afternoon towards 20 percent, mainly along the sea breeze, especially Monday and Tuesday. Drier air arrives by mid to late week as high pressure briefly builds again. Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures through next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions have returned this afternoon with scattered to broken skies and south-southeasterly winds sustained around 15-18 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots. This is expected to continue for the remainder of this afternoon before winds settle down through sunset to a light southeasterly breeze overnight. Guidance is inconsistent, therefore low to medium confidence for ceilings overnight, but am going with broken VFR with the potential of lowering to MVFR, especially towards dawn, noted in the TEMPO's. The highest potential of lower ceilings overnight are at KMFE. VFR conditions slowly return to all terminals throughout Friday morning as southeasterly winds pick back up. && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Now through Next Thursday...Surface high pressure generally holds across the Western Gulf with light to briefly moderate southeasterly winds through the forecast period, allowing seas to gradually diminish by the weekend and remain favorable through Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms offshore gradually taper off through tomorrow before returning again Monday through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 92 78 92 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 95 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 80 86 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 90 77 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...65-Irish