FXUS64 KBRO 031123 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 623 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure across the Gulf continues to build through the end of the week, with drier air gradually cutting off rain chances before most Independence Day celebrations. Most of any leftover showers remain generally light tonight, with the best chance of rain shifting further north and coastal to offshore into early Thursday and across the brush country on Friday. Still expect near normal highs and lows, with cloud cover slowly diminishing through Friday. The humidity will help drive a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across the RGV through Independence Day. With it being a holiday weekend, nice weather, and a very borderline rip current situation due to wave heights around 3 ft and swell period at times reaching above 5 seconds, will bump up the rip current risk to moderate Thursday and Friday for some additional awareness. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The mid-level ridge pivots back across the Desert SW through the holiday weekend, allowing weak 500mb low pressure to nestle along the lower Texas coast and some low level moisture to bring back some rain chances. Above normal PWATs return Saturday into Wednesday, increasing POPs each afternoon towards 20 percent, mainly along the sea breeze, especially Monday and Tuesday. Drier air arrives by mid to late week as high pressure briefly builds again. Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures through next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Currently a range of ceiling levels from IFR to VFR are in the region and could continue for a couple of hours till after sunrise. However ceilings are expected to rise to VFR by mid- morning and should persist until late tonight, when low-level clouds return and ceilings return to MVFR. Southeasterly winds are expected to continue as well with some gustier winds during the afternoon hours with winds gusting around 20 knots. While a rogue shower is possible, confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Now through Next Thursday...Surface high pressure generally holds across the Western Gulf with light to briefly moderate southeasterly winds through the forecast period, allowing seas to gradually diminish by the weekend and remain favorable through Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms offshore gradually taper off through tomorrow before returning again Monday through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 78 92 78 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 92 76 93 76 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 94 78 95 78 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 80 87 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 78 90 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...64-Katz